Bitcoin Halving: Mechanism, Impact, and the Date of the Next Halving
Bitcoin halving is triggered automatically at a specified block height, reducing the block reward received by miners by half. It does not change the amount of Bitcoin already held by holders, but slows the growth of new supply and affects miner revenue and the network’s economic structure.
How Bitcoin Halving Works
The Bitcoin protocol stipulates that for every 210,000 blocks produced, the block reward received by miners is reduced by 50%, occurring approximately once every 4 years. The reward decreases from 2009 per block in the year 50 BTC, successively declining to 2024 in 3.125 BTC. This mechanism gradually slows the issuance of new coins and brings the total supply closer to the cap of 21000000 coins.
Impact on Holders and the Market
Halving does not deduct, freeze, or increase the Bitcoin already held by users; it changes the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. A decline in the rate of supply growth may attract greater market attention and volatility, but the environment differs for each halving, and historical performance does not guarantee future results. No model can reliably predict price trends.
Miner Revenue and Network Security
A halving of the block reward directly compresses miners’ subsidy revenue, and miners with high costs or outdated equipment may exit. Miners can adapt by improving hardware efficiency, joining mining pools, or relying more on transaction fees. In the long term, as the block subsidy continues to decline, whether transaction fees can adequately support miners and network security remains a subject of research and debate.
The Next Halving
The next halving is expected to occur when the block height reaches 1,050,000, at approximately 2028, at which point the block reward will decrease from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The specific date cannot be determined precisely in advance because the actual block production rate fluctuates with the network-wide hash rate and difficulty adjustments; the reward is expected to reach zero around 2140.
Original Tutorial
https://www.binance.com/en/academy/articles/bitcoin-halving-date-what-happens-to-your-bitcoin-after-the-halving
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