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After the nonfarm payrolls data was released,CME FedWatch showed that the market expects the Federal Reserve to October see the probability of leaving rates unchanged rise to 83%, while the probability of a rate hike falls to 17%. Federal funds futures’ expectation of cumulative rate hikes by the 2026 year-end also edged lower.
BlockBeats reported that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson said the Federal Reserve may need more time to decide on its next rate hike move.
U.S.August core PCE Both year-on-year and month-on-month readings came in below expectations, while personal spending exceeded expectations. Following the data, short-term interest-rate futures rose, and October the probability of holding rates unchanged was 52.9%。
BlockBeats says that, ahead of the U.S.September nonfarm payrolls report, Kalshi traders’ expectations for employment growth were higher than forecasts from investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. The report also said that the market is watching the data’s impact on interest-rate expectations.
PANews cited CME“Fed Watch” as saying that PCE after the data release, the market expects the Federal Reserve’s probability of October keeping interest rates unchanged to be 52.9%，December cumulative rate hikes of 25 or 50 basis points to have a combined probability of 90%。
摩根士丹利利率策略师预计，美联储9月后或在12月和明年3月各加息一次，但实际收紧幅度可能低于市场预期。
Capital Economics believes that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields mainly reflects rising oil prices and a strong U.S. economy, rather than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. The institution expects tightening to be less forceful than the market anticipates, and the 10-year yield will fall to 2027 before year-end. 4.25%。
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Jonathan Levin said that intensifying expectations of Fed rate hikes are pushing up U.S. short-end real yields, leaving the Treasury to choose between short-term financing and extending debt maturities.
According to CME“Federal Reserve Watch” data, the market expects the Federal Reserve’s October rate-hike 25-basis-point probability to be 64.2%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.8%。