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Connect scattered updates into a story you can understand.
After the nonfarm payrolls data was released,CME FedWatch showed that the market expects the Federal Reserve to October see the probability of leaving rates unchanged rise to 83%, while the probability of a rate hike falls to 17%. Federal funds futures’ expectation of cumulative rate hikes by the 2026 year-end also edged lower.
BlockBeats reported that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson said the Federal Reserve may need more time to decide on its next rate hike move.
BlockBeats says that, ahead of the U.S.September nonfarm payrolls report, Kalshi traders’ expectations for employment growth were higher than forecasts from investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. The report also said that the market is watching the data’s impact on interest-rate expectations.
Capital Economics believes that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields mainly reflects rising oil prices and a strong U.S. economy, rather than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. The institution expects tightening to be less forceful than the market anticipates, and the 10-year yield will fall to 2027 before year-end. 4.25%。