After the nonfarm payrolls data, the market lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve October rate hike to 17%
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After the nonfarm payrolls data was released, traders expect the Federal Reserve to October see the probability of leaving rates unchanged rise to 83%, while the probability of a rate hike falls to 17%。
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Nonfarm payrolls cool, Fed October rate-hike probability falls to 17%BlockBeats reports that October 2, with the nonfarm payrolls data further reinforcing the view that momentum in the U.S. labor market is cooling. According to the CME Group (CME) FedWatch tool, traders currently expect the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at the October meeting to be 83%, up from 72%before the employment report was released; the probability of a rate hike is expected to fall from 28%to 17%. Rate expectations have also cooled.
Currently, federal funds futures pricing shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to deliver cumulative rate hikes of approximately 2026 by the end of 22.2 year, down from 25.5 basis points before the data was released. (Jinshi)
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/370087
Key points
01
October 2, with the report stating that the nonfarm payrolls data further reinforced the view that momentum in the U.S. labor market is cooling.
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According to CME Group (CME)’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Federal Reserve to October leave rates unchanged at the 83%meeting with a probability of 72%。
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Traders expect the Federal Reserve’s October probability of a rate hike to fall from 28%to 17%。
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Federal funds futures pricing shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to deliver cumulative rate hikes of approximately 2026 by the end of 22.2 year, compared with 25.5 basis points before the data was released.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
These figures reflect how traders price the future rate path. After momentum in the labor market cooled, market expectations for October rate hikes declined, but the 17%probability does not mean that rate hikes have been completely ruled out. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage points.
Why it matters to readers
Changes in rate expectations are an important signal for observing the direction of monetary policy; this report shows that after the nonfarm payrolls data was released, market expectations for further rate hikes cooled.
Beginners can monitor 83%and 17%how they respond to subsequent data, but the original text does not provide any price performance for crypto assets, so it cannot confirm on this basis that BTC or ETH have risen or benefited.
Risks and unknowns
The report does not provide specific nonfarm payrolls figures.
The report does not provide the original CME Group page, a screenshot of the futures data, or the calculation method.
These probabilities represent trader expectations and futures pricing, not a meeting decision already made by the Federal Reserve.
The original text only states October 2, and does not explicitly identify the year of the report in the body.
The original text does not provide BTC、ETH or the immediate price reaction of other assets.
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Nonfarm payrolls data
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