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BlockBeats cited CME“FedWatch” data, stating that the market's implied probability of the Federal Reserve December raising rates 25 basis points is 70.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.3%。
Real U.S. third-quarter GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth 3.4%，September PCE The price index rose year on year 3.6%. The report said market pricing showed a December rate hike 25-basis-point probability of approximately 80%。
BlockBeats reports that WASH said at the press conference following the October FOMC meeting that the Federal Reserve plans to adjust its meeting schedule beginning next autumn, with some meetings dedicated specifically to discussing policy strategy without a rate vote.
BlockBeats quoted Wash as saying that he was skeptical of the view that “rate hikes will not affect AI” and had also noted the impact of interest rates on the technology sector.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while Governor Lisa Cook cast her first dissenting vote since joining in 2022, advocating a rate hike of 25 basis points. The report also said that Trump is making a second attempt to remove her from the Federal Reserve Board.
BlockBeats, citing CME data, said that FOMC hours before the decision, the market expected a 4 probability of October keeping rates unchanged, and expected a 90.6%probability of December raising rates by 25 basis points 78.4%。
According to CME data from “FedWatch,” the Federal Reserve’s October probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 11.6%。
Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the October 27 to 28 meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh must explain the reasons for not raising rates for now while keeping open the possibility of another December rate hike.
Fed rate-hike expectations over 1 months fell from 64% to 11%, indicating a clear shift in the market's assessment of the interest-rate path.
CME"Fed Watch" data show that the Federal Reserve's October probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.9%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 11.1%。
The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index fell to 48 points, while inflation expectations for the next 1 years and for five to years rose to their highest levels since May.
CoinShares believes that a weakening housing market provides room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but overheated inflation data still leaves a risk of further increases; Bitcoin is supported by spot demand and short covering.