FOMC Before the decision 4 hours: Market bets on October keeping rates unchanged
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AT A GLANCE
FOMC hours before the decision, traders bet that the 4 probability of no rate hike was October 90.6%，December raise rates by 25 basis points, with a probability of 78.4%。
Article
⚡️FOMC Countdown 4 hours, traders further bet on no rate hike this month
BlockBeats reports that October 28, according to CME data from “FedWatch,” with only FOMC hours remaining before the 4 decision, traders are further betting on no rate hike this month. The current probability of the Federal Reserve October keeping rates unchanged is as high as 90.6%.
However, the market is also betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike as high as 78.4%. The probability of no rate hike is only 13.6%.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/374201
Key points
01
BlockBeats said the message was published at October 28。
02
According to CME“FedWatch” data, only FOMC hours remained before the 4 decision.
03
Traders bet that the Federal Reserve would October keep rates unchanged, with a probability of 90.6%。
04
The market bet that the Federal Reserve would December raise rates by 25 basis points, with a probability of 78.4%。
05
Evidence stated that the December probability of no rate hike was 13.6%。
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
These figures reflect market bets before the decision was announced, not a decision already made by the Federal Reserve. 90.6%indicates that the market then tended to believe that October rates would remain unchanged; meanwhile, the market’s bet on the Federal Reserve December raising rates by 25 basis points was relatively strong.
Why it matters to readers
Expectations for the rate path will affect traders’ judgments about subsequent policy, but the final outcome should still be based on the FOMC official decision.
Beginners should distinguish between “market forecast probability” and “formal policy decision”; a high probability does not mean that the outcome is certain.
Risks and unknowns
FOMC The formal decision did not appear in the evidence.
The evidence did not provide the CME original data page, so the relevant probabilities cannot be independently verified.
The evidence only states “October 28” and does not specify the year.
December The probabilities of a rate hike and no rate hike do not total 100%, and the remaining scenarios are not explained.
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FOMC
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