美国银行警告油价上涨可能推高利率
美国银行利率策略师Ralph Axel警告，若未来3至6个月油价继续上涨，通胀压力可能促使投资者要求更高利率，并增加家庭借贷成本。
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美国银行利率策略师Ralph Axel警告，若未来3至6个月油价继续上涨，通胀压力可能促使投资者要求更高利率，并增加家庭借贷成本。
美银证券在研究报告中称，若未来三至六个月油价及成品油价格进一步上涨，利率可能显著走高。其认为能源通胀上升或减少美联储加息的制约。
BlockBeats称，2026年FOMC票委哈马克表示，货币政策需转向限制性立场，并倾向于频繁、小幅度调整利率。其称通胀仍然过高、走势错误，渐进加息对经济和金融体系干扰较小。
ChainCatcher称，英国央行将利率上调25个基点至4.00%，为2023年8月以来首次加息。行长贝利表示，若伊朗战争未解决，后续加息可能性较高。
BlockBeats称，民主党在中期选举中取得两院控制权后，CME“美联储观察”显示12月加息25个基点的概率由70%升至76.9%。
BlockBeats cited CME“FedWatch” data, stating that the market's implied probability of the Federal Reserve December raising rates 25 basis points is 70.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.3%。
Real U.S. third-quarter GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth 3.4%，September PCE The price index rose year on year 3.6%. The report said market pricing showed a December rate hike 25-basis-point probability of approximately 80%。
BlockBeats reports that WASH said at the press conference following the October FOMC meeting that the Federal Reserve plans to adjust its meeting schedule beginning next autumn, with some meetings dedicated specifically to discussing policy strategy without a rate vote.
BlockBeats quoted Wash as saying that he was skeptical of the view that “rate hikes will not affect AI” and had also noted the impact of interest rates on the technology sector.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while Governor Lisa Cook cast her first dissenting vote since joining in 2022, advocating a rate hike of 25 basis points. The report also said that Trump is making a second attempt to remove her from the Federal Reserve Board.
BlockBeats, citing CME data, said that FOMC hours before the decision, the market expected a 4 probability of October keeping rates unchanged, and expected a 90.6%probability of December raising rates by 25 basis points 78.4%。
According to CME data from “FedWatch,” the Federal Reserve’s October probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 11.6%。