凯投宏观：AI投资热潮逆转不太可能单独引发美国衰退
凯投宏观首席经济学家希林认为，AI投资热潮逆转本身不太可能导致美国或其他七国集团经济体衰退，并已将投资回撤及股市下跌的影响纳入2027年美国增长预测。
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凯投宏观首席经济学家希林认为，AI投资热潮逆转本身不太可能导致美国或其他七国集团经济体衰退，并已将投资回撤及股市下跌的影响纳入2027年美国增长预测。
A preliminary University of Michigan survey shows U.S. consumer confidence rebounded about 6%, but remains 10% below February; inflation expectations for the next 1 year fell to 4.3%. The cost of living remains respondents' top concern.
Trump stated before the midterm elections that the Republican Party’s election results would exceed external expectations and claimed that the inflation problem had been resolved. The report also noted that food, gasoline, and medical expenses continue to rise.
Real U.S. third-quarter GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth 3.4%，September PCE The price index rose year on year 3.6%. The report said market pricing showed a December rate hike 25-basis-point probability of approximately 80%。
U.S. through October 24 weekly initial jobless claims stood at 194000 people, below the expected 199000 people; the previous figure was revised to 195000 people.
BlockBeats reported that Trump said U.S. consumer confidence is rising 7.5%, calling it a substantial increase.
AI Infrastructure investment supports U.S. economic growth, but there is currently insufficient evidence that it has produced a sustained productivity surge. Corporate cost pressures continue to rise, and inflation risks have not receded.
The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index fell to 48 points, while inflation expectations for the next 1 years and for five to years rose to their highest levels since May.
BlockBeats reports that JPMorgan Chase CEO CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy remains strong, but the bank has stress-prepared for extreme scenarios such as a stock market decline 40%and widening credit spreads.
Larry Fink said in an CNBC interview that if the United States pauses data center construction, the economy could fall into recession; he also said that U.S. national debt has risen to 40000000000000 USD。
The Federal Reserve Beige Book showed that U.S. economic growth was weak, while oil, tariff, and insurance costs pushed up prices; businesses expected prices to continue rising over the coming months.
United States October Preliminary consumer confidence fell to 46.3, the Current Economic Conditions Index fell to an all-time low, while one-year and long-term inflation expectations both rose. 1
