Article

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy: US inflation heats up again as markets resume pricing in “higher for longer”

BlockBeats reports that,October 15, focusing on the US September CPI‘s stronger-than-expected rebound, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy noted that inflation is once again showing signs of spreading from energy to core prices. US September CPI rose to 3.7%year on year, while core CPI rose to 2.6%month on month, accounting for more than half of the overall increase. However, prices for services including housing, medical care, and air travel also rose, indicating that this inflation rebound cannot be explained entirely by the energy shock.

The data further reinforces the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” policy logic. Against a backdrop in which the economy has not yet shown clear signs of recession, the Fed has no urgent reason to pivot toward easing; instead, it needs to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored again. 9.1%CPI After the release, Treasury yields and USD rose rapidly, and the market once again increased its expectations for further rate hikes, essentially reflecting a renewed rise in uncertainty over the interest-rate path.

For crypto markets, this change is negative in the short term. The market is currently trading primarily on real interest rates,USD and global liquidity. High inflation does not automatically benefit Bitcoin;CPI after the release, Bitcoin immediately weakened and fell below 82000 USD, indicating that renewed expectations of high interest rates have become the main constraint on risk-asset valuations. In the medium term, it is necessary to distinguish between “energy-driven inflation” and “demand-driven inflation.” If energy prices decline and core inflation no longer accelerates, 9 monthly data are more likely to represent a temporary supply shock. If core services inflation continues to rise, it would mean that the US is re-entering a more persistent inflationary environment, and rates may remain elevated for longer than the market expects. For Bitcoin, the next move will depend on whether inflation, employment, and long-term Treasury yields can jointly confirm a new policy path.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371930