CME FedWatch: Federal Reserve October probability of keeping rates unchanged 77.9%
BIBIBI
AT A GLANCE
CME The "FedWatch" tool shows that the market estimates the probability that the Federal Reserve will October keep rates unchanged at 77.9%。
Article
Federal Reserve October probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.9%BlockBeats news,October 4, according to CME the "FedWatch" tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged by October is 77.9%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 22.1%.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged by December is 14.8%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 67.3%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points is 17.9%.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/370203
Key points
01
BlockBeats reported on October 4 the CME"FedWatch" interest-rate probability data.
02
The Federal Reserve will by October keep rates unchanged with a probability of 77.9%。
03
The Federal Reserve will by October raise rates cumulatively by 25 basis points with a probability of 22.1%。
04
The Federal Reserve will by December keep rates unchanged with a probability of 14.8%。
05
The Federal Reserve will by December raise rates cumulatively by 25 basis points with a probability of 67.3%, and raise rates cumulatively by 50 basis points with a probability of 17.9%。
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
These figures express the market expectations reflected by the tool. For example, 77.9%indicates that the market is more inclined to believe that October rates will remain unchanged, but does not mean that the outcome has been determined. A "basis point" is a unit of interest-rate change; 25 basis points equal 0.25 percentage points.
Why it matters to readers
These probabilities can be used to observe how market participants assess the future interest-rate path, as well as the difference between October and December expectations.
Beginners should understand these data as changing probability estimates, rather than an interest-rate decision already announced by the Federal Reserve.
Risks and unknowns
The material does not provide CME the original page, so the listed probabilities cannot be independently verified.
The material does not provide historical changes in the probabilities, so it is impossible to determine how market expectations have shifted recently.
These probabilities are market expectations, not official decisions by the Federal Reserve.
The material does not specify the year.
Related Developments
Loading event timeline…
Related concepts
Basis Points
This term is not in the glossary yet. Browse related concepts in the glossary.
