Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three consecutive times, with the upper limit of the rate rising to 4.75%
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AT A GLANCE
PANews, citing Reuters, reported that Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in three consecutive meetings, but this is not an announced policy decision.
Article
Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times in a row, with the target range for the federal funds rate rising to 4.50%–4.75%
PANews November 11 news, according to Reuters, the US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%. After the data was released, Deutsche Bank added a rate hike in January next year to its forecast in a research report: it now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in December this year, January and March next year, and the target range for the federal funds rate will rise from the current 3.75%–4% to 4.50%–4.75%. Deutsche Bank also said that the speech of Federal Reserve Governor Waller made it possible to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December, but this is not its baseline expectation. CME FedWatch shows that the market believes the probability of a rate hike in December is close to 99%.
The original text states that the US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%.
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Deutsche Bank reportedly expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in December of this year, January and March of next year.
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Deutsche Bank predicts that the target range for the federal funds rate will rise from 3.75%–4% to 4.50%–4.75%.
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Deutsche Bank said Waller's remarks made a 50 basis point rate hike in December possible, but that is not its base case expectation.
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The original text states that CME FedWatch shows the market believes the probability of a rate hike in December is close to 99%.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This is a paraphrase of a rate hike forecast, not an official decision by the Federal Reserve. Deutsche Bank's main judgment is three rate hikes of 25 basis points each; a single 50 basis point hike in December is just another possibility. The nearly 99% mentioned in the text refers to the probability of a rate hike in December, and does not specify the exact magnitude of the hike.
Why it matters to readers
The core change in the report is that Deutsche Bank added a January rate hike next year to its forecast, adjusting its judgment on the subsequent interest rate path; whether actual policy will be executed accordingly remains unconfirmed.
When reading, one must distinguish between bank forecasts, market probabilities, and formal policy decisions, and not interpret a rate hike probability approaching 99% as meaning that a specific magnitude has been determined.
Risks and unknowns
The evidence provided consists solely of paraphrases, without the original Reuters text, the original Deutsche Bank research report, the original CPI data, or CME FedWatch data snapshots attached, and the relevant content has not been independently verified.
The text only indicates November 11, without specifying the year, so it is impossible to determine the specific years corresponding to "this year" and "next year."
The timing, magnitude, and final interest rate range of the rate hike are forecasts, not confirmed policy outcomes.
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The original text and specific content of Waller's speech were not provided.
Related concepts
CPI
This term is not in the glossary yet. Browse related concepts in the glossary.
