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【Middle East Situation Tracker: U.S.-Iran Talks Focus on the Strait of Hormuz and Nuclear Program; Trump Denies Willingness to Concede on Sanctions and Assets】
According to people familiar with the matter, Iranian officials privately expressed pessimism about reaching an agreement with Washington before the U.S. midterm elections.November 3 Iranian officials believe that talks on ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz have made little substantive progress, while the possibility of an escalation after the midterm elections is instead higher. Iran remains willing to seek a solution through diplomacy, but does not believe the Trump administration will honor the terms of an agreement; Trump had likewise expressed doubts about whether an agreement could be reached before the election. The core disagreements in the current talks center on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. government has told the mediators that Iran must make a firm commitment to reopen the strait and make concessions on its nuclear program. A U.S. official said that the United States would not reach an agreement with Iran until the nuclear issue is resolved; Trump is willing to provide sanctions relief and release some frozen funds in exchange for concrete progress by Iran on the nuclear issue. Trump subsequently publicly denied reports by Axios and other media outlets, saying that he had not offered Iran conditions involving sanctions waivers or the unfreezing of assets, and demanded that the reports be retracted. Qatar is continuing to mediate around a revised version of Iran's previously proposed 7-day plan. Iran's semi-official media ISNA confirmed that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi had met with the mediators in New York, but that U.S. representatives did not attend. Araghchi said that Iran had conveyed to the United States and the international community the conditions required to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and had discussed with Qatar a proposal to be submitted to the United States; after receiving Washington's response, Qatar will convey it to Iran through appropriate channels. Araghchi subsequently returned to Tehran as scheduled and did not remain in New York awaiting a U.S. response. This year June, the memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran temporarily helped bring about a ceasefire and allowed more ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the arrangement collapsed in less than 2 weeks, and traffic through the strait remains far below prewar levels. Iran insists that talks can make progress only if the United States lifts the maritime blockade and oil sanctions. As market expectations for a U.S.-Iran agreement cooled, Brent crude futures rose on Monday by 2%, to approximately 106.20 USD。