Binance report:BTC rose after rate hikes 9.3%, with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields driven mainly by real rates

Article

BlockBeats reports that October 12，Binance research published a weekly report stating that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields was mainly attributable to higher real rates, rather than rising inflation expectations. Since August 31, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen cumulatively by 47 basis points, of which real yields contributed 43 basis points, while the breakeven inflation rate rose by only 4 basis points. 10-year real yields once reached October 5 on 2.95%, the highest level since 2008.

The report noted that since the September 16 Federal Reserve rate hikes, the S&P 500 Index has risen by 3.3%, while the semiconductor sector has risen by 10.6%. Small-cap and bank stocks performed weakly, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index was essentially unchanged. The crypto market likewise showed structural divergence: over the same period,BTC rose by 9.3%，ETH rose by 2.7%, while the median gain among the remaining 194 crypto assets reached 21%；Layer 2, real-world assets (RWA) and AI tokens rose by 32%、29%and 29%，MEME coins and payment tokens both rose by 5%。

Binance Regarding fund flows into platform stocks,October 5 to 9 recorded net inflows of 169000000 USD, the highest level since early July. The semiconductor sector attracted 73000000 USD in inflows, accounting for approximately 43%of the total, despite semiconductor ETF falling by 5%. Intel received 32000000 USD in inflows, the highest among individual stocks, but its share price fell by 12%over the same period; Nvidia received 10000000 USD in inflows.

Looking ahead to this week,Binance research believes that U.S.September CPI data and bank earnings guidance will be key variables. The market expects overall CPI year-on-year growth to rise from 3.4%to 3.7%. If the data exceed expectations, bets on further October rate hikes may rise again; the current related probability is approximately 20%. The report stated that real rates and corporate earnings guidance will determine the subsequent performance of risk assets, while whether BTC can sustain its upward momentum will also be tested by fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields during the release of CPI and ETF fund flows.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371436

Key points

A weekly report from Binance Research said that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields was mainly attributable to higher real rates, rather than rising inflation expectations.
Since August 31, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen cumulatively by 47 basis points, of which real yields contributed 43 basis points and the breakeven inflation rate rose by 4 basis points.
10-year real yields once October 5 reached 2.95%, the highest level since 2008.
Since September 16 Federal Reserve rate hikes, the S&P 500 Index rose by 3.3%, while the semiconductor sector rose by 10.6%，BTC rose by 9.3%，ETH rose by 2.7%。
Layer 2, real-world assets and AI tokens rose by 32%、29%and 29%。
October 5 to 9, Binance platform stocks recorded net inflows of 169000000 USD, the highest level since early July.
The report said that U.S.September CPI data and bank earnings guidance will be key variables this week.
The market expects overall CPI year-on-year growth to rise from 3.4%to 3.7%, with the related October rate-hike probability at approximately 20%。

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

The report primarily attributed the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields to higher real yields, rather than a marked increase in inflation expectations. It also documented differences in the performance of various stocks and crypto assets after rate hikes, and identified U.S.September CPI, bank earnings guidance, fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows as key areas for future monitoring.

Why it matters to readers

Yields, inflation data, and corporate guidance may affect risk-asset performance; the report specifically noted that BTC's upward momentum will continue to be tested by CPI fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields during the release of ETF and

It can be viewed as a market observation: different assets posted markedly different gains and losses over the same period, and the market will next focus on whether CPI exceeds expectations, as well as guidance from bank earnings reports.

Risks and unknowns

The data and outlook above are attributed to the Binance Research weekly report; no independent verification results were provided in the evidence.
CPI Forecast values,October the rate-hike probability, and subsequent market impacts are expectations or judgments in the report; actual results have not appeared in the evidence.
The evidence does not specify ETF how fund flows will change going forward.

Binance report:BTC rose after rate hikes 9.3%, with the rise in U.S. Treasury yields driven mainly by real rates

Article

AI-assisted interpretation

Why it matters to readers

Risks and unknowns

Related Developments

Related concepts

Keep following

Security Center