BNP Paribas strategist: The Fed's September rate hikes may be preventive and are unlikely to reenact 2022—2023 tightening cycle
BIBIBI
AT A GLANCE
BNP Paribas strategist said the Fed's September rate hikes are unlikely to initiate a new round of prolonged tightening.
Article
BNP Paribas: The Fed Is Unlikely to Reenact 2022-2023 the rate-hike cycle
PANews September 28 reported, citing a report by Cailian Press, that BNP Paribas strategist Chi Lo said that although the market expects two more rate hikes, the Fed's September rate hike is unlikely to become the beginning of a cycle similar to 2022 to 2023 a new round of tightening. Instead, this may mark the beginning of "preventive rate hikes," aimed at bringing inflation back to target by reversing last year's three rate cuts. He said that further rate hikes would not resolve external shocks such as war and energy-price inflation, but would ease financial markets' concerns about the Fed's anti-inflation credibility. The Fed cannot continue to turn a blind eye to recurring shocks or shocks that fail to subside as expected. However, by curbing inflationary pressures through slowing activity in other parts of the economy, further rate hikes could also risk pushing the economy into stagflation.
The market expects the Fed to deliver two more rate hikes.
02
Chi Lo said that the Fed's September rate hike is unlikely to become the beginning of a new round of tightening similar to 2022 to 2023 year.
03
Chi Lo said this may mark the beginning of "preventive rate hikes," aimed at bringing inflation back to target by reversing last year's three rate cuts.
04
Chi Lo said further rate hikes would not resolve external shocks such as war and energy-price inflation.
05
The report noted that further rate hikes could curb inflationary pressures by slowing activity in other parts of the economy, but could also risk pushing the economy into stagflation.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This report relays the judgment of BNP Paribas strategist Chi Lo: subsequent rate hikes may be limited action to control inflation expectations, rather than necessarily signaling a return to a sustained 2022 to 2023 tightening cycle.
Why it matters to readers
The subsequent rate-hike path may affect the market's assessment of inflation, the financial market's confidence in the Fed's anti-inflation credibility, and stagflation risks.
Rate hikes generally tighten financial conditions; stagflation refers to slowing economic activity while inflationary pressures persist.
Risks and unknowns
This is a strategist's view relayed by PANews, citing Cailian Press, and is not official Fed guidance.
The article does not provide an official Fed statement or independent cross-source verification.
The number and duration of subsequent rate hikes remain uncertain.
Related Developments
Loading event timeline…
Related concepts
tightening cycle
This term is not in the glossary yet. Browse related concepts in the glossary.