CME FedWatch: Probability of the Fed October keeping rates unchanged rises to 82.3%
BIBIBI
AT A GLANCE
CME“Fed Watch” shows that October the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.3%。
Article
⚡️Fed October Probability of keeping rates unchanged rises to 82.3%BlockBeats reported that October 5, according to CME“Fed Watch,” the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by October is 82.3%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 17.7%.
The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by December is 17.3%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 68.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points is 14%.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/370277
Key points
01
BlockBeats reported on October 5 the data from CME“Fed Watch.”
02
The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by October is 82.3%。
03
The probability that the Fed will by October cumulatively hike rates by 25 basis points is 17.7%。
04
The probability that the Fed will by December keep rates unchanged is 17.3%。
05
The probability that the Fed will by December cumulatively hike rates by 25 basis points is 68.7%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points is 14%。
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
These figures describe CME the different interest-rate scenarios and their probabilities listed by “Fed Watch.” Simply put,October in the corresponding data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is higher than that of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points;December in the corresponding data, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is the highest.
Why it matters to readers
These probabilities can be used to observe expected changes under different interest-rate scenarios, but the original text does not provide information that the Fed has made a October or December interest-rate decision.
Beginners should distinguish between “probability data” and a “formal interest-rate decision”: 82.3%refers to the likelihood estimate in the data cited by the original text and does not mean that the outcome has been determined.
Risks and unknowns
The original text is BlockBeats’ paraphrase of data from CME“Fed Watch” and does not provide the data-calculation method.
October and December the actual interest-rate outcomes cannot yet be confirmed from the original text.
The original text does not state whether these probabilities subsequently changed.
The headline says the probability “rises to”82.3%, but the body does not provide the previous probability, so the size of the increase cannot be verified.
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Basis Points
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