CPI Leverage is still accumulating after the shock,HTX Research says the risk of deleveraging in the crypto market is rising

AT A GLANCE

Chloe said that after the shock, leverage in the crypto market has not been cleared, leaving short-term downside and further deleveraging risks.CPI

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HTX DeepThink：CPI Leverage is still accumulating after the shock, and the risk of deleveraging in the crypto market is rising

BlockBeats reports,October 15，HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe noted that the impact of the US September CPI shock has spread from adjustments in interest-rate expectations to overall risk appetite, while deleveraging in the derivatives market remains incomplete, leaving the crypto market under short-term downward pressure. After the data was released, US Treasury yields initially rose rapidly before partially retreating, but the crypto market’s decline continued. As of Beijing time October 15 12: 00，BTC cumulative decline of 3.50%，ETH decline 6.27%.

Historical data shows that the impact of the CPI on the crypto market is mainly concentrated in the short term. Among the past 18 releases, the correlation coefficient between the extent of the inflation upside surprise and CPI released 30 minutes after the release was BTC, falling to -0.46 after 4 hours and 24 hours, respectively, at -0.14 and -0.09. Macroeconomic data provides the initial direction, while subsequent performance depends more on liquidity, institutional capital, and leverage structure. Within 30 minutes after this data release,BTC trading volume increased by approximately 5 times, but the initial support near 83,000 USD still failed to prevent the decline;BTC spot ETF saw cumulative net outflows of approximately 859000000 USD over nearly six trading days, further weakening spot support.

Derivatives data likewise shows that leverage has not yet been cleared. Within CPI hours after the 4 release, open interest in major coins generally increased. By noon the following day,SOL open interest had increased by 7.95%, indicating that leverage risk continued to accumulate during the decline.

Over the next 1 to 3 days, the market may remain cautiously bearish overall.BTC may rebound to around 81,600 USD on short covering, but against a backdrop of strong USD, outflows of ETF capital, and persistent core inflationary pressure, there remains a risk of retesting 80,200 USD. If this level breaks and is accompanied by a rapid decline in open interest, it could trigger further deleveraging. 83,860 USD is an important reference point for assessing whether the impact of this round of CPI has been fully absorbed. In the short term, altcoins’ downside elasticity is expected to remain higher than BTC.

Note: This content does not constitute investment advice or an offer, solicitation, or recommendation concerning any investment product.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/372040

Key points

HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe said that the impact of the US September CPI shock has spread from adjustments in interest-rate expectations to overall risk appetite.
The article states that, as of Beijing time October 15 12: 00，BTC cumulative decline of 3.50%，ETH decline 6.27%。
The article states that among the past 18 releases, the correlation coefficient between the extent of the inflation upside surprise and CPI released within 30 minutes after the release was BTC, and was -0.46，4 hours and 24 hours, respectively, at -0.14 and -0.09。
The article states that within 30 minutes after this data release,BTC trading volume increased by approximately 5 times, while BTC spot ETF saw cumulative net outflows of approximately 859000000 USD。
The article states that within CPI hours after the release, open interest in major coins generally increased. By noon the following day, 4 open interest had increased by SOL 7.95%。
Chloe expects the market to remain cautiously bearish over the next 1 to 3 days and lists 80,200 USD、81,600 USD and 83,860 USD as reference levels.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

The core message of this content is:CPI after its release,BTC and ETH declined, but open interest in derivatives did not decrease significantly at the same time. The article therefore concludes that leverage has not been fully exited. If prices continue to fall, leveraged positions may be forcibly liquidated, amplifying volatility. The future price levels cited in the article are the researcher’s view, not certain outcomes.

Why it matters to readers

The article argues that the simultaneous occurrence of ETF capital outflows, weakening risk appetite, and increasing open interest could make a short-term decline more likely to develop into further deleveraging.BTC Whether it can hold or reclaim the reference levels listed in the article, and how open interest changes, are important observations for assessing whether the risks are easing.

Beginners should treat the price targets and directional views in the article as scenario analysis rather than trading instructions. Two indicators deserve particular attention: spot ETF capital flows reflect the changes in spot support described in the article, while open interest reflects the size of unsettled derivatives positions.

Risks and unknowns

The article does not provide the original sources for trading volume,ETF net outflows, correlation coefficients, or open-interest data, so they cannot be independently verified based solely on this evidence.
80,200 USD、81,600 USD and 83,860 USD are forecasts or reference levels proposed by the researcher, and it cannot be confirmed whether they will materialize.

CPI Leverage is still accumulating after the shock,HTX Research says the risk of deleveraging in the crypto market is rising

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