Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve October to be unlikely to raise interest rates consecutively, with the baseline scenario calling for December another rate hike
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AT A GLANCE
Huatai Securities judges that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to October raise interest rates consecutively and may, under the baseline scenario,December raise rates again.
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Huatai Securities: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to October raise interest rates consecutively; under the baseline scenario, it will December raise rates again
PANews October 3 reported, citing Jin10, that Huatai Securities noted that September the nonfarm payrolls report fell short of expectations, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates consecutively in the near term. As monthly nonfarm payroll data are highly volatile, based on the 3-month average, nonfarm payroll additions were 51000, near the equilibrium employment level. Combined with the unemployment rate remaining low, this indicates that the labor market remains resilient but is not necessarily tight.September With weaker nonfarm payrolls and slowing wage growth,September real income has slowed somewhat, and household consumption may also struggle to sustain its August strong performance. Looking ahead, the forward-looking indicator NFIB of hiring intentions indicates that October nonfarm payrolls may remain weak, but could rebound thereafter. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to October raise interest rates consecutively; under the baseline scenario, it will December raise rates again.
PANews reported, citing Jin10, that Huatai Securities noted that September the nonfarm payrolls report fell short of expectations.
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Huatai Securities stated that, based on the 3-month average, nonfarm payroll additions were 51000, near the equilibrium employment level.
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Huatai Securities stated that the unemployment rate remains low and that the labor market is resilient but not necessarily tight.
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Huatai Securities believes that September weaker nonfarm payrolls and slowing wage growth have led to September some slowing in real income.
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Huatai Securities believes that NFIB hiring intentions indicate that October nonfarm payrolls may remain weak before rebounding thereafter.
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Huatai Securities believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to October raise interest rates consecutively; under the baseline scenario, it will December raise rates again.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This is a securities firm's assessment of U.S. employment data and the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. The key point is that recent employment and wage data have been weak, leading Huatai Securities to conclude that the urgency for October consecutive rate hikes has declined, although its baseline forecast still includes December another rate hike.
Why it matters to readers
Whether and when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates is important information for the market in assessing the interest-rate path; however, the original content is Huatai Securities' forecast, not a decision already announced by the Federal Reserve.
Beginners should distinguish between an “institutional forecast” and a “policy decision.” The statement that it is “unlikely to October raise interest rates consecutively” and that it will “December raise rates again” are both Huatai Securities' judgments; whether they will occur remains unconfirmed.
Risks and unknowns
The original article is PANews' relay of Huatai Securities' views, citing Jin10, and does not provide the original Huatai Securities report.
Whether the Federal Reserve will October or December raise interest rates remains unconfirmed.
October Weak nonfarm payrolls, a subsequent rebound, and household consumption performance are all forecasts or statements of possibility.
The original text does not specify the year to which the relevant months belong.
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Related concepts
Nonfarm payrolls report
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