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The Hormuz crisis has driven up global crude oil transportation costs, with freight rising from per barrel 3 USD to above 20 USD According to BlockBeats,October 22, a Goldman Sachs report shows that the global average crude oil transportation cost has risen from 1 years ago, at approximately per barrel 3 USD to 20 USD above, while major Middle East routes exceed per barrel 35 USD. The war risk arising from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, ship-to-ship transfers, rising fuel costs, and declining tanker scheduling efficiency are jointly driving up crude oil transportation costs, creating a new round of pressure on energy prices.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the war risk premium related to the Strait of Hormuz adds approximately 7 USD per barrel to transportation costs, ship-to-ship transfers add approximately 4 USD, rising marine fuel costs add approximately 4 USD, declining tanker scheduling efficiency and route diversions add approximately 3 USD, and the reduced availability of Iranian tankers contributes approximately 2 USD.
The surge in transportation costs has also widened regional crude oil price differentials. The recent spread between Brent crude and WTI crude reached approximately 14 USD per barrel, significantly above the usual level of approximately 5 USD. Goldman Sachs noted that Asian refiners are particularly vulnerable to the impact, while some European refiners have begun reducing crude oil imports and processing volumes.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to fall to approximately 90 USD per barrel by the end of this year, and to average 2027 per barrel in 80 USD. However, if transportation, insurance, and refining costs remain elevated, prices of refined products such as gasoline and diesel may remain high even if benchmark crude prices decline, further intensifying energy inflationary pressure.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/373157