This week’s macro outlook:CPI Data to test the Federal Reserve’s pause-on-rate-hikes stance, with Waller’s IMF speech in focus

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BlockBeats reports that October 12, global markets this week will focus on U.S.September CPI data to assess whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its “non-consecutive rate-hike” stance. Although most officials believe another rate hike is possible this year, recent remarks suggest they are not in a hurry to act at consecutive meetings. Market pricing for a October 28 rate hike has fallen to approximately 19%while a December rate hike is fully priced in. Geopolitically, the standoff between the United States and Iran and the escalation of the situation in Yemen continue to support an oil-price risk premium, while the U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement is likely to have limited short-term impact. Key events are as follows:

Tuesday:

Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks;

Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India;

U.S.September NFIB small-business confidence index, U.S. initial September 26 jobless claims for the week ending ADP and annualized existing-home sales;September OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Wednesday:

U.S.September CPI and core CPI;

Federal Reserve officials make a series of remarks ahead of the release of the Beige Book on economic conditions;

Boston Fed President Collins and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speak;IEA releases its monthly oil market report.

Thursday:

U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ending October 9 and API;

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10 and September retail sales,September PPI and core PPI、October; New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes; 20 Group finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting.

Friday:

Federal Reserve Chair Waller attends the Bangkok IMF annual meeting and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva;

Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks again;

U.S.September import price index and industrial production;

U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ending October 9 and EIA.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371284

Key points

The original text says global markets will focus on U.S.September CPI data this week.
The original text says market pricing for a October 28 rate hike has fallen to approximately 19%，December rate hike is fully priced in.
The Wednesday items listed in the original text include U.S.September CPI, core CPI, and IEA monthly oil market report.
The Thursday items listed in the original text include U.S. initial jobless claims,September retail sales,PPI, core PPI and two manufacturing indexes.
The original text says that on Friday Waller will attend the Bangkok IMF annual meeting and hold a fireside chat with the IMF Managing Director Georgieva.
The original text says the U.S.-Iran standoff and the escalation of the situation in Yemen continue to support an oil-price risk premium, while the U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement is likely to have limited short-term impact.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This is a macroeconomic events calendar.CPI and PPI are used to observe price changes; retail sales, employment, and manufacturing data reflect economic activity. The original text considers these data and Federal Reserve officials’ speeches important points of observation for the market’s assessment of monetary policy;OPEC、IEA reports and U.S. crude-oil inventory data relate to the oil market.

Why it matters to readers

The material shows that the market is watching whether the Federal Reserve maintains its “non-consecutive rate-hike” stance, while also monitoring geopolitical developments, oil reports, and inventory data. The relevant data and speeches may affect the market’s assessment of the interest-rate path and oil supply and demand.

Beginners may wish to focus on U.S.September CPI and core CPI、PPI, retail sales, and Federal Reserve officials’ speeches; these are the main items listed in the original text for observation this week. The material does not provide specific prices, fund flows, or on-chain data for BTC or ETH.

Risks and unknowns

Most of the items in the text are future events; the actual data and speech content have not yet been released.
The original text does not provide the calculation sources for market pricing of October 28 and December rate hikes.
The original text provides no further evidence supporting the claim that geopolitical tensions support the oil-price risk premium or that the diesel supply agreement will have limited impact.

This week’s macro outlook:CPI Data to test the Federal Reserve’s pause-on-rate-hikes stance, with Waller’s IMF speech in focus

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