Macro outlook for next week:CPI Data to test the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes, with Warsh’s IMF speech in focus

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⚡️Macro outlook for next week:CPI Data to test the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes, with Warsh’s IMF speech in focus

BlockBeats reports that October 11, global markets next week will focus on U.S.September CPI data to assess whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its “non-consecutive rate hikes” stance. Although most officials believe another rate hike is possible this year, recent comments indicate they are not in a hurry to act at consecutive meetings. Market pricing for October 28 rate hike has fallen to approximately 19%, while a December rate hike has been fully priced in. Geopolitically, the standoff between the United States and Iran and the escalation of the situation in Yemen continue to support an oil-price risk premium, while the U.S.-Russia diesel supply agreement will have limited short-term impact. Key events are as follows:

Tuesday:

Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech;

Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India;

U.S.September NFIB small business confidence index, initial September 26 weekly ADP jobless claims,September existing-home sales annualized total;

OPEC will release its monthly oil market report.

Wednesday:

U.S.September CPI and core CPI;

Federal Reserve officials will make a series of appearances ahead of the release of the Beige Book on economic conditions;

Boston Fed President Collins and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak;IEA will release its monthly oil market report.

Thursday:

U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9; weekly API crude oil inventories;

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10,September retail sales,September PPI and core PPI、October New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes; 20 Group finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting.

Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will attend the Bangkok IMF annual meeting and hold a fireside chat with IMF President Georgieva;

Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak again;

U.S.September import price index and industrial production;

U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9; weekly EIA crude oil inventories.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371221

Key points

The article says the market will focus on U.S.September CPI and core CPI data.
The article says most Federal Reserve officials believe another rate hike is possible this year, but recent comments indicate they are not in a hurry to act at consecutive meetings.
The article says market pricing for October 28 rate hikes has fallen to approximately 19%，December rate hikes have been fully priced in.
The article lists next week’s U.S. employment, retail sales,PPI, industrial production and crude oil inventory data releases.
The article says Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will attend the Bangkok IMF annual meeting and hold a fireside chat with IMF President Georgieva.
The article says the standoff between the United States and Iran and the escalation of the situation in Yemen continue to support an oil-price risk premium.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This is a schedule of macroeconomic events for next week. Key items include U.S. inflation, employment and consumption data, as well as speeches by Federal Reserve officials; the article says this information will be used to observe whether interest-rate policy expectations change. On the oil front, OPEC,IEA and inventory data are also on the schedule.

Why it matters to readers

U.S. inflation and employment data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, may affect market assessments of the subsequent interest-rate path; geopolitical developments and oil reports are factors mentioned in the article for monitoring oil prices.

CPI is a measure of changes in consumer prices, while core CPI usually refers to the measure excluding food and energy. Changes in rate-hike expectations may affect market pricing of USD, bonds and risk assets, but this article does not provide specific asset-price reactions.

Risks and unknowns

The article’s October and December rate-hike expectations are market pricing or expectations and have not yet been confirmed by actual meeting outcomes.
U.S.September CPI, core CPI and other economic data results do not appear in the article.
The article alone cannot establish whether the Federal Reserve will ultimately raise rates again this year.
The geopolitical developments, oil-price risk premium and report impacts mentioned in the article still require subsequent factual verification.

Macro outlook for next week:CPI Data to test the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes, with Warsh’s IMF speech in focus

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