Viewpoint: U.S.AI investment growth may peak in the fourth quarter, 2027 declining year-on-year

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BlockBeats reports that October 27, Shenwan Hongyuan said in a macroeconomic research report that U.S.AI investment growth may peak around the fourth quarter of this year, 2027 entering a period of decline; global AI industry-chain capital expenditure of approximately 74%flowing to data centers.

The report said that, as of the second quarter of 2026 year, hyperscale cloud providers' capital expenditure accounted for AI within the 66%stack, making them the primary spending source. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, 2026 the capital expenditure of the five major U.S. cloud providers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft) may exceed 800000000000 USD, with year-on-year growth of approximately 94%and accounting for approximately GDP of U.S. 2.5%；2027、2028 spending may continue to expand, but growth may fall back to 40%、10%. In terms of end-use structure, approximately AI of global 74%industry-chain capital expenditure flows to data centers, of which approximately 55%is invested in servers/GPU.

Based on project-level data, Shenwan Hongyuan estimated that the average data-center construction cycle is approximately 20 months, with an average shelving rate of approximately 33%；1 Investment during the year is mainly determined by existing plans and projects under construction. Under 20%、33%、45%three shelving-rate scenarios, all estimates point to a peak in U.S.AI investment growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, approximately one quarter later than the market consensus expectation for the capital-expenditure growth of the five major cloud providers; 2027 entering a period of slowing growth is highly probable.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/373902

Key points

BlockBeats relayed Shenwan Hongyuan's macroeconomic research report on October 27.
The report said that, as of 2026 the second quarter of the year, hyperscale cloud providers' capital expenditure accounted for AI within the 66%。
According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, 2026 the capital expenditure of the five major U.S. cloud providers may exceed 800000000000 USD, with year-on-year growth of approximately 94%and accounting for approximately GDP of U.S. 2.5%。
The report said that approximately AI of global industry-chain capital expenditure 74%flows to data centers, of which approximately 55%is invested in servers/GPU。
Based on project-level data, Shenwan Hongyuan estimated that the average data-center construction cycle is approximately 20 months, with an average shelving rate of approximately 33%。
Under 20%、33%、45%three shelving-rate scenarios, all estimates point to a peak in U.S.AI investment growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 year.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

The report believes that U.S.AI related investment may continue to expand, but its growth rate may reach a peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 year and then slow in 2027 year. A substantial amount of capital expenditure flows to data centers, with servers and GPU among the major spending areas.

Why it matters to readers

If the forecast holds, the growth rate of demand related to cloud providers' capital expenditure, data-center construction, and servers/GPU may consequently slow.

Beginners should distinguish between “investment scale continuing to expand” and “growth slowing”: the latter does not mean that investment amounts will immediately decline, and the conclusions in the report are research estimates rather than results that have already occurred.

Risks and unknowns

Whether U.S.AI investment growth will peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 year has not yet been confirmed.
2027 Whether growth will slow and whether it will reach the levels stated in the article still depends on actual future spending.
The complete methodology and underlying data for the Bloomberg consensus estimates and Shenwan Hongyuan's project-level estimates were not disclosed in the relay.
The actual future shelving rate and construction cycle of data-center projects may differ from the assumptions used in the estimates.

Viewpoint: U.S.AI investment growth may peak in the fourth quarter, 2027 declining year-on-year

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