Analyst says Bitcoin bull-market confirmation signal has reappeared
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AT A GLANCE
Darkfost said that a Bitcoin cost-basis crossover indicator has been triggered again, showing that market-cycle momentum has shifted.
Article
Analyst: Bitcoin bull-market confirmation signal emerges; cycle momentum has shifted
PANews September 24 reports that on-chain analyst Darkfost stated that a bull-market confirmation signal has emerged in the Bitcoin market, indicating that the trend reversal following the end of the previous bear market is being validated. Darkfost said that he had previously July 11 used the indicator to determine that the bear market was nearing its end, and that the signal has now appeared again, confirming that market momentum has shifted. This is the 5 th time the indicator has been triggered in its history. Although there remains room for error, it further strengthens the credibility of the current Bitcoin upcycle. The signal is based on short-term holder (STH) cost basis breaking above long-term holder (LTH) active cost basis. Darkfost noted that the active LTH cost basis includes only Bitcoin supply that has moved at least once in the past 7 years, excluding long-dormant, illiquid holdings and making the indicator more meaningful. In addition, the market currently still has more than 3500000 coins BTC dormant for more than 1...
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🔗https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/01a0d2aa-5a08-7573-8af7-ffe873ea97ce
Key points
01
PANews relayed the view of on-chain analyst Darkfost, stating that a bull-market confirmation signal has emerged in the Bitcoin market.
02
Darkfost said that he had previously July 11 used this indicator to determine that the bear market was nearing its end, and that the signal has now reappeared.
03
The original article stated that this was the 5 th trigger in the indicator's history.
04
The signal is formed when the short-term holder (STH) cost basis breaks above the long-term holder (LTH) active cost basis.
05
Darkfost said that the active LTH cost basis includes only Bitcoin supply that has moved at least once in the past 7 years, excluding long-dormant, illiquid holdings.
06
The original article stated that the market currently still has more than 3500000 coins BTC dormant, but the relevant sentence was truncated.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This metric compares the coin holding costs of short-term holders and active long-term holders. When the short-term holder cost basis breaks above the active long-term holder cost basis, Darkfost interprets it as a shift in market momentum and believes it further confirms the trend change following the end of the previous bear market. However, this is only the analyst's assessment of on-chain indicators.
Why it matters to readers
If the indicator remains valid going forward, it may affect market participants' assessment of Bitcoin's position in the cycle and the credibility of its upward trend.
Beginners can understand it as an on-chain signal for observing market cycles, rather than a guarantee that prices will rise; the original text also explicitly notes that the indicator still has room for error.
Risks and unknowns
The content is PANews' restatement of Darkfost's views and does not provide the indicator's underlying data or independent verification.
The original text does not show the specific market performance following the indicator's previous triggers.
No concurrent response in Bitcoin price or capital flows to this signal is provided.
The end of the main text is truncated; regarding more than 3500000 coins BTC dormant, the complete wording and meaning cannot be confirmed.
“Bull market confirmation” and “momentum shift” are analysts' judgments, not confirmed market outcomes.
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Related concepts
Short-term holders (STH）
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