Wintermute says Bitcoin's support from capital inflows has weakened; take a cautious short-term view of altcoins

AT A GLANCE

Wintermute said that capital inflows into the crypto market had weakened and that caution should be maintained until Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF flows return to net inflows.

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Wintermute: Bitcoin loses support from capital inflows; take a cautious short-term view of altcoins

BlockBeats reports that October 13, Wintermute stated that Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that most officials expected another rate hike this year, and the market's pricing probability of a October rate hike was approximately 20%; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.2%last week to reach a record high, while the crypto market performed weakly. The rise in U.S. equities was supported by expectations for corporate earnings growth, whereas the crypto market lacked comparable earnings support and depended more heavily on new capital inflows; as capital flows reversed, crypto assets' previously sustained 6-week countertrend rally became difficult to sustain.

Bitcoin fell back last week from 86000 to around 87000 USD, briefly dropping to approximately 80400 USD on Thursday, then rebounding above 83000 USD and reclaiming the range high at 82500 USD. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of approximately 679000000 USD last week, the largest weekly outflow since late June, while Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of approximately 542000000 USD.

The crypto market has lost support from capital inflows, while U.S. equities still have the floor of earnings growth. Therefore, in the short term, the market will remain favored only if long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF flows return to net inflows. Before these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset more sensitive to U.S. equity volatility and with elevated downside risk; chasing low-quality altcoins is not recommended. If the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield breaks above September 30 and reaches the 5.64%level, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance when rebounding around 82500 USD, Wintermute will turn cautious. This week, close attention should be paid to the U.S.September CPI data released on Wednesday to assess whether energy inflation is spreading to core inflation, as well as to the earnings performance of financial institutions and AI-related companies.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371584

Key points

BlockBeats reported that Wintermute said most Federal Reserve officials expected another rate hike this year, and the market's pricing probability of a October rate hike was approximately 20%。
The article stated that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24%, and that the S&P 500 Index rose 1.2%last week to reach a record high.
The article stated that Bitcoin fell back last week from 86000 to 87000 USD around, briefly dropping to approximately 80400 USD on Thursday, then rebounding above 83000 USD.
The article stated that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of approximately 679000000 USD, while Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of approximately 542000000 USD。
Wintermute said that it would not remain bullish on the market until long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF flows return to net inflows, and did not recommend chasing low-quality altcoins.
Wintermute said that if the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above 5.64%, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance when rebounding around 82500 USD, it will turn cautious.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

The core view of this content is that U.S. equities are supported by expectations for corporate earnings growth, while the crypto market depends more heavily on new capital. After spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF experienced net outflows, Wintermute believes that the momentum behind crypto assets' previous rise has weakened and that Bitcoin's short-term downside risk is elevated.

Why it matters to readers

The article identified long-term U.S. Treasury yields and spot ETF capital flows as the two conditions for determining whether the crypto market can continue strengthening, and identified Bitcoin 82500 USD around and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield 5.64%as levels to monitor.

Newcomers should focus on observing whether spot ETF capital flows return to net inflows and whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields stabilize, while understanding that this article presents Wintermute's market view rather than a certain outcome.

Risks and unknowns

The content relays Wintermute's view through BlockBeats; the evidence does not include the full text of Wintermute's original post.
The price, yield,ETF flow, and probability data in the article were not independently verified in the evidence.
Whether long-term Treasury yields stabilize, whether ETF returns to net inflows, and Bitcoin's subsequent trajectory cannot yet be confirmed.
“Low-quality altcoins” is not given a clear scope or assessment criteria.

Wintermute says Bitcoin's support from capital inflows has weakened; take a cautious short-term view of altcoins

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