Article
Bonk Guy: Avoid overtrading and wait for the opportunity window; exit in a timely manner when the edge is no longer present
BlockBeats reports that October 25, the well-known trader Bonk Guy posted a review stating that October 10, 2025, after multiple major centralized trading platforms experienced systemic failures, he suffered the largest single-day loss of his career within minutes, amounting to an eight-figure sum USD. Over the following weeks to months, he lost millions more USD due to overtrading. In hindsight, his best choice at the time would have been to stop trading for several months, or even at least half a year, and stay away from trading terminals. However, his eagerness to recover the losses and prove his trading ability drove him to keep entering trades, ultimately leading him to make a common trader's mistake.
Trading ability, experience, and a trading system are not sufficient to guarantee continued outperformance of the market. Successful trading often also depends on market conditions, timing, and luck. Many traders have earned enormous returns during periods when market opportunities were abundant, but the same trading strategy may fail completely during a 2022-year bear market and subsequent periods with scarce opportunities. Traders need to recognize that the strategies that provide an edge differ across market environments, and timely assessment of whether their own edge still exists is an important skill; sometimes, the best trade is no trade.
Opportunities in the crypto market are often concentrated in specific phases. Traders do not need to outperform the market every 1 day, every 1 week, or every month; instead, they should identify and seize the periods when their edge is most pronounced. Under one historical cycle framework, crypto bull markets last approximately 1060 days on average, accounting for 74%of the cycle; bear markets last approximately 380 days, accounting for 26%. If a bull market is defined as a phase in which Bitcoin's price is above the 200-day moving average and the market exhibits strong upward momentum, the opportunity window may be shortened to approximately 237 days, accounting for 16%of the cycle. These figures depend on how market phases are defined and are not fixed rules. Compared with forcing trades in unfavorable conditions, protecting capital, maintaining clear judgment, and waiting for the next major opportunity are more important; when they have no edge, traders can temporarily exit the market or participate using only a small portion of funds they can afford to lose.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/373556