Bitwise: Bitcoin implied volatility falls to 3 a yearly low, while long-term holders continue distributing coins

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BlockBeats reported that October 23, Bitwise said in a report that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around 82000 USD, a level close to the cost basis of spot ETF holdings. Key levels below include the short-term holder cost basis of approximately 74800 USD, and the realized market mean of approximately 77600 USD. The former can serve as a reference for assessing the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the capital invested in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed jointly by these two levels may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.

Bitcoin's trading ranges over the past 30 days and 60 days have narrowed to 1.8%and 3.0%, respectively, while at-the-money implied volatility across maturities is also near the bottom of the distribution range of the past 3 years. Among these, implied volatility for 3 months and 6 months is at the 0.8 th and 0.2 th percentiles of their historical distributions, respectively, indicating that the market's pricing of future volatility has fallen to an extremely low level.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows of 1074000000 USD so far this week, rising alongside the cumulative spot volume delta and providing support for Bitcoin's price, offsetting some of the macroeconomic pressure. However, realized market profits have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. At the same time, the long-term holder net position change metric is negative, indicating that they may be in a position-distribution phase, which may be one reason Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/373421

Key points

Bitwise reported that Bitcoin is currently around 82000 USD, close to the cost basis of spot ETF holdings.
The short-term holder cost basis is approximately 74800 USD, and the realized market mean is approximately 77600 USD。
Bitcoin's trading ranges over the past 30 days and 60 days have narrowed to 1.8%and 3.0%。
3 months and 6 months are at the 0.8 th and 0.2 th percentiles of their historical distributions.
U.S. spot Bitcoin so far this week ETF has recorded net inflows of 1074000000 USD。
The long-term holder net position change metric is negative, and the report says they may be in a position-distribution phase.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

Implied volatility reflects the market's expectations for future price fluctuations. Current volatility and the trading range are both low;ETF capital inflows provide support, but long-term holder net position is negative, meaning potential selling pressure also exists in the market.

Why it matters to readers

The market is in a narrow consolidation range, and the cost range of approximately 74800 to 77600 USD may become an area watched by bulls and bears;ETF inflows are moving in the opposite direction from long-term holder distribution.

This indicates that Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations have been limited, but low volatility does not mean there is no risk; subsequent changes in capital flows and the cost range warrant attention.

Risks and unknowns

The Bitwise report was relayed by BlockBeats, and the content of the original report was not fully presented in the evidence.
The distribution by long-term holders is a possibility inferred by the report from the metrics, not a confirmed fact.
The evidence does not state which direction the price will move after the period of low implied volatility.

Bitwise: Bitcoin implied volatility falls to 3 a yearly low, while long-term holders continue distributing coins

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