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Bitunix analyst:AI The boom has not faded, but market divergence is intensifying, with foreign capital withdrawals and speculative trading heating up simultaneously
BlockBeats reports that October 13, global markets are not turning bearish on AI; rather, they are beginning to reassess the funding risks behind growth expectations. BlackRock downgraded U.S. equities from overweight to neutral and shifted to overweighting short-term U.S. Treasuries, reflecting the increased risks of holding equities amid high interest rates and greater volatility in AI infrastructure investment. South Korea’s Kospi plunged more than 6.5%intraday, while Samsung Electronics and SK SK Hynix fell for the fifth consecutive trading day, with foreign investors October net selling more than 6000000000 USD. Even if semiconductor companies’ earnings remain strong, concentrated holdings, the retreat of leveraged trading, and the gradual disappearance of buyback support could still amplify price corrections.
U.S. equities are showing another extreme: the daily notional trading volume of individual-stock options is approximately 700000000000 USD, with more than half of trades concentrated in contracts expiring within 2 the week, while bullish sentiment has rebounded to its highest level since July. This indicates that capital has not fully exited risk assets, but shorter trading horizons and concentrated positions make the market more sensitive to share-price volatility. When earnings expectations are already high and prices depend on the support of a few AI companies, any earnings miss or slowdown in investment returns could trigger more pronounced position adjustments.IMF warned that global economic growth is becoming concentrated in fewer economies, while AI hardware supply chains and demand markets are also highly concentrated. This means that once technology investment cools, the impact could spread across multiple markets simultaneously. The Central Bank of Kazakhstan plans to reduce gold’s share of foreign-exchange reserves from approximately 78%to 75%, noting that high U.S. Treasury yields have increased the attractiveness of USD assets. This also reflects institutions’ renewed assessment of asset allocation.
Next, the U.S.September CPI will be a key test for the market. If core inflation rises by 0.2%month over month, it could support the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes; if it rises to 0.3%, tightening expectations could rise again. Overall CPI could still be pushed higher by energy prices. What the market really needs to confirm is no longer simply whether AI demand exists, but whether corporate earnings can support current valuations and whether capital remains willing to bear concentrated risks amid high interest rates and inflation uncertainty.