Monitoring indicates TwoEyes holds approximately 10750000 USD in gold and BTC long positions and bought a prediction that the blockade will end
BIBIBI
AT A GLANCE
According to the report,TwoEyes bought a Yes prediction that the US would end its blockade of Iran by the end of November and held approximately 10749000 USD in gold and BTC long positions.
Article
X trader TwoEyes buys a prediction that the US November will end its blockade and holds tens of millions in USD BTC and gold long positions
BlockBeats reported that November 10, according to TradingBeats monitoring, cross-market trader TwoEyes(X: two_gifts_) invested approximately 7594 USD early today to buy a Yes prediction that “the US will announce an end to its blockade of Iran by the end of November”, at an average execution price corresponding to an implied probability of approximately 21.8%. The market probability has since fallen to 17.5%, and the position is currently valued at approximately 6088 USD, with an unrealized loss of approximately 1506 USD.
The same account also invested approximately 1964 USD to buy a Yes prediction that “Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by year-end.”
On Hyperliquid,TwoEyes's main long positions remain concentrated in gold and BTC, with a combined notional value of approximately 10749000 USD:
- Gold: Long position valued at approximately 6316300 USD, with an average entry price of 4013.41 USD and an unrealized profit of approximately 157400 USD。
- BTC: Long position valued at approximately 4432600 USD, with an average entry price of 74,298.2 USD and an unrealized profit of approximately 26800 USD.
In today's position adjustments, the account exited its ETH long position, reduced its WLD holdings by approximately half, and opened a new long position of approximately 323900 USD XRP.BTC holdings increased slightly overall today after being reduced and repurchased, while gold holdings were reduced somewhat.
Original article link:https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/376482
Key points
01
On November 10, BlockBeats cited TradingBeats monitoring as saying that TwoEyes invested approximately 7594 USD to buy a Yes prediction that “the US will announce an end to its blockade of Iran by the end of November”, at an average execution price corresponding to an implied probability of approximately 21.8%。
02
At the time of the report, the market probability had fallen to 17.5%, and the position was valued at approximately 6088 USD, with an unrealized loss of approximately 1506 USD。
03
The same account invested approximately 1964 USD to buy a Yes prediction that “Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by year-end.”
04
The Hyperliquid gold and BTC long positions listed in the report had a combined notional value of approximately 10749000 USD; the gold long position was approximately 6316300 USD, with an unrealized profit of approximately 157400 USD，BTC long position was approximately 4432600 USD, with an unrealized profit of approximately 26800 USD。
05
The report said the account exited its ETH long position that day, reduced its WLD holdings by approximately half, and opened a new long position of approximately 323900 USD XRP;BTC holdings increased slightly overall, while gold holdings were reduced somewhat.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This report documents a trader's bets and position changes; it does not mean the international events in question have already occurred. At the time of the report, the trader's Yes position on an end to the blockade of Iran was valued below the amount invested, while the gold and BTC long positions were reported to have unrealized profits. The original article uses “notional value,” which cannot be treated directly as the capital actually invested in the account.
Why it matters to readers
The report provides insight into TwoEyes's simultaneous participation in international event prediction markets and gold and crypto asset trading, but the positions alone cannot determine event outcomes or the overall market direction.
A trader buying Yes should be distinguished from confirmation that an event has occurred, just as a position's notional value should be distinguished from the amount invested and unrealized profit or loss; the market's displayed probability is not a guarantee of the outcome.
Risks and unknowns
The original article did not provide an account address, transaction records, or screenshots of the positions, so the monitoring data cannot be independently verified from the report.
The original article did not confirm that the US had ended its blockade of Iran or that Russia and Ukraine had reached a ceasefire agreement; these were only predictions purchased by the account.
The original article did not disclose leverage, margin, or the account's full risk exposure, so actual invested capital cannot be calculated from notional positions.
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Market probabilities, position valuations, and unrealized profits and losses reflect only the state at the time of the report; subsequent changes are unknown.
Related concepts
Yes prediction
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