Implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in October rises to 54.2%
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AT A GLANCE
According to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in October is 54.2%.
Article
Probability of a Fed rate hike in October is 54.2%
PANews, September 23 — According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 45.8%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 54.2%. By December, the probability that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 10.8%%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 47.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 41.4%.
PANews reported on September 23 that the data came from CME’s “FedWatch.”
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The probability that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 45.8%.
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The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at its October meeting is 54.2%.
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By December, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point Fed rate hike is 47.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 41.4%.
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The original text states that the probability that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% by December is “10.8%%”.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
These data express the probability assessment associated with each possible interest-rate outcome. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike in October is higher than the probability of leaving rates unchanged.
Why it matters to readers
The original text presents the probability distribution of different interest-rate outcomes for October and December, which can be used to understand the expectations reflected by CME’s “FedWatch.”
Beginners should distinguish among “leave rates unchanged,” “cumulative 25-basis-point hike,” and “cumulative 50-basis-point hike,” and note that these figures are probabilities rather than confirmed decisions.
Risks and unknowns
The original text contains a duplicated percent sign in “10.8%%”; the accurate wording should be verified.
These probabilities are provided by CME’s “FedWatch”; the original text does not explain the calculation methodology.
The original text does not state whether these probabilities may continue to change.
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