11000000000 USD Bitcoin options will expire October 30 at expiry, with the market watching volatility before and after the election

AT A GLANCE

Approximately 11000000000 USD Bitcoin options will expire on October 30 expiration, with traders focusing on settlement at expiration and volatility around the U.S. midterm elections.

Article

Notional value 11000000000 USD Bitcoin options are set to expire and settle tomorrow, with traders wary of heightened volatility around the midterm elections

BlockBeats reports that October 29, according to Bloomberg, with a notional value of approximately 11000000000 USD Bitcoin options are set to expire on October 30 representing approximately one-third of the open interest in Bitcoin options on Deribit. Traders are wary of volatility that may intensify around the expiry settlement and November 3 the U.S. midterm elections. Among the contracts expiring this time, call options outnumber put options, with strike prices concentrated at 90,000、95,000 and 100,000 USD; with Bitcoin hovering around 80,000 USD these high-strike contracts are highly likely to expire worthless.

Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, said that approximately 70%of the expiring options Gamma are concentrated in the range of 75,000 to 82,000 USD.Gamma reflects the impact of price changes on market makers’ hedging needs. Among strikes below 80,000 USD the number of put options is more than twice that of call options. He stressed that publicly available data cannot determine the direction of market makers’ positions; if they hold short option positions, hedging operations could accelerate Bitcoin’s decline into the 75,000 to 78,000 USD range, while positions in the opposite direction could cushion the decline.

Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, believes that more pronounced volatility may emerge after Friday’s expiry. Investors who hold coins and sell options typically sell new contracts after the old contracts expire, but some sellers may wait until the midterm elections are over to act. She said that the usual Gamma reduction in supply could amplify price volatility while the election results are announced.

The election results could also affect Trump’s ability to advance pro-crypto policies. A Bloomberg Market Pulse survey showed that if Republicans retain control of both chambers, the median respondent forecast for Bitcoin’s year-end price is 90,800 USD; if Democrats control both chambers, it is 76,450 USD; and if the two parties each control one chamber, it is 84,100 USD。

Paul Howard, a senior executive at Wincent, said the election could prompt investors to buy more put options near the current price to hedge against further declines. He expects that, after volatility remained at historically low levels over the past 1 years,November will see a significant rebound, and the market will also increase positions that benefit from price volatility.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/374294

Key points

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately 11000000000 USD will October 30 expire.
This expiry represents approximately one-third of the open interest in Bitcoin options on Deribit.
Among the expiring contracts, there are more call options than put options, with strike prices concentrated at 90,000、95,000 and 100,000 USD。
Adam Haeems stated that approximately 70%of the expiring options Gamma are concentrated in 75,000 to 82,000 USD range.
Adam Haeems said that publicly available data cannot determine the direction of market makers' positions.
Caroline Mauron believes that more pronounced volatility may emerge after Friday's expiry.
The median year-end Bitcoin price forecast in Bloomberg's Market Pulse survey varies depending on different outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections.
Paul Howard expects that November volatility will rebound significantly, and the market will also increase positions that benefit from price volatility.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

When options expire, traders and market makers may need to adjust or close hedging positions. The size of this expiry is large, and many contracts are concentrated within specific price ranges, so the market is watching whether more pronounced volatility may emerge. However, public data cannot confirm whether market makers hold long or short positions, so there is no definitive answer as to whether hedging operations will amplify a decline or cushion the fall.

Why it matters to readers

A large options expiry is occurring close to the U.S. midterm elections. Respondents in the evidence believe that if some sellers do not immediately sell new contracts after the old contracts expire, regular Gamma supply may decline, and price volatility could increase during the release of the election results.

Beginners should note that this news discusses volatility risk, not a definitive forecast of price direction. Price movements may accelerate near the expiry date and when the election results are released, and the risks of using leverage or options may also be more difficult to control.

Risks and unknowns

Public data cannot determine market makers' actual positioning direction.
It remains uncertain whether post-expiry hedging activity will accelerate the decline or cushion it.
It remains uncertain whether some option sellers will wait until after the midterm elections before selling new contracts.
November Whether volatility will rebound significantly is Paul Howard's prediction; it has not yet occurred.

11000000000 USD Bitcoin options will expire October 30 at expiry, with the market watching volatility before and after the election

Article

AI-assisted interpretation

Why it matters to readers

Risks and unknowns

Related Developments

Related concepts

Keep following

Security Center