Arthur Hayes says AI Data centers may trigger a crash due to overinvestment; Bitcoin could benefit from bailout liquidity

AT A GLANCE

Arthur Hayes believes AI data centers may be overbuilt and crash, while liquidity from bailouts could drive crypto assets such as Bitcoin higher.

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⚡️Arthur Hayes：AI The boom is "wasting" trillions USD and could trigger a crash and bailouts, with Bitcoin potentially benefiting from excess liquidity

According to BlockBeats,October 7, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated at the Gamma Prime Investment Conference in Singapore that humanity is AI"wasting trillions" on data-center construction USD. He is betting that this AI boom will ultimately see overinvestment, a crash, and bailouts, while excess liquidity released through bailouts could drive Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher.

Hayes believes that technology companies racing to build data centers and compete for computing power will ultimately lead to excess capacity, making computing power "extremely cheap and abundant." He said: "If you study financial history and every major technology rollout, you find that they are always overbuilt, there is always a crash, and there is always a bailout." Citing the 2008 financial crisis and other events over the past 20 years as examples, he believes investors positioning in advance for bailout policies may benefit, but need to remain patient.

He noted that buyers of computing power, such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, are not yet profitable. Once the data centers currently under construction are completed, infrastructure providers will require these customers to pay for the computing power they had previously committed to purchase. He expects this test may emerge in late 2027 or 2028, when substantial new data-center capacity is delivered. Another bullish scenario is that AI becomes sufficiently useful over the next 12 months, driving demand growth and enabling AI companies to become profitable. Hayes also acknowledged that storage-chip manufacturers and AI suppliers such as Nvidia are already profitable, and investors need to assess whether valuation multiples based on their forward earnings are reasonable. He said he does not like betting on price declines or shorting AI companies, considering it "not a particularly good investment opportunity."

Cheap and abundant computing power is also the foundation of his new project, Flop. The AI agent-payment project is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2027 and plans to establish a spot market for computing power, rewarding participants with Flop tokens for providing GPU and performing AI inference. Hayes believes that cheaper computing power will drive the proliferation of agents: "If agents can directly exchange a currency for the computing power they consume, they will use that currency. That is our bet."

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/370622

Key points

According to BlockBeats, Arthur Hayes expressed his views on AI data-center investment at the Gamma Prime Investment Conference in Singapore.
Hayes believes technology companies racing to build data centers and compete for computing power could ultimately create excess capacity.
Hayes expects substantial new data-center capacity may be delivered in late 2027 or 2028.
Hayes proposed another scenario:AI becomes sufficiently useful over the next 12 months, demand grows, and AI companies become profitable.
Hayes stated that storage-chip manufacturers and AI suppliers such as Nvidia are already profitable.
Hayes said he does not like betting on price declines or shorting AI companies, considering this not a particularly good investment opportunity.
Hayes's new project Flop is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2027 and plans to establish a spot market for computing power, rewarding participants with Flop tokens for providing GPU and performing AI inference.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

Hayes's core judgment is that after substantial capital flows into AI data centers, the supply of computing power may exceed demand in the future. If a crash and bailouts subsequently occur, the additional liquidity released by the bailouts could flow into crypto assets such as Bitcoin. However, he also presented the opposite scenario, in which AI demand grows rapidly and helps related companies become profitable.

Why it matters to readers

This view connects AI infrastructure investment, potential bailout policies, and crypto-asset prices, and also forms the conceptual foundation for the Flop project's cheap-computing-power and agent-payment vision. However, the article describes Hayes's forecasts and investment scenarios, not market outcomes that have already occurred.

Beginners should distinguish facts from forecasts: Hayes did express these views, but whether data centers will have excess capacity, whether a crash and bailouts will occur, and whether Bitcoin will rise as a result have not been verified in the original article. Flop also remains a project planned for launch.

Risks and unknowns

AI It remains uncertain whether data centers will develop excess capacity.
2027 Late 2028 or may become a point of concentrated data-center capacity delivery and pressure, but this remains uncertain.
It remains uncertain whether the related crash, bailouts, and liquidity expansion will occur.
It remains uncertain whether excess liquidity will drive Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher.

Arthur Hayes says AI Data centers may trigger a crash due to overinvestment; Bitcoin could benefit from bailout liquidity

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