Goldman Sachs says the Nasdaq 100 index is testing a key trendline

AT A GLANCE

Goldman Sachs says the Nasdaq 100 Index is testing a key trendline, and the SOX decline is approaching that of a few historical crisis periods.

Article

Goldman Sachs: Nasdaq Testing Key Benchmark Trendline, SOX Decline Comparable to Dot-Com Bubble Burst, 08 Financial Crisis

BlockBeats News, November 9, Goldman Sachs' Chief Expert for Technology, Media and Telecommunications Peter Callahan clearly pointed out in his latest weekly report that the Nasdaq 100 Index is retesting the key benchmark trendline connecting the 2025 April low and the 2026 March low. Last Thursday's closing price of approximately 26630 points landed almost precisely on that line, and on Friday, driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks, the index closed at 26990 points, only about 1% above the trendline, still more than 14% below the October 6 all-time high of 31361 points. Callahan wrote that the significance of this level is hard to overstate.

If the trendline breaks, Callahan's charts show the next clear support level is near the 2026 March low at approximately 23000 points, representing another decline of about 15% from current levels. Meanwhile, market extreme sentiment indicators have turned fully red — last Thursday saw the largest single-day put option volume in the history of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Goldman Sachs' flagship semiconductor stock basket realized volatility surged to 93, the highest level since April this year.

The Nasdaq 100 Index fell approximately 5% last week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has cumulatively declined 28% over the past 22 trading days, and Callahan noted that the speed of this decline has only been matched a few times since 1997, including the dot-com bubble burst, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the coronavirus pandemic shock.

Callahan's description of current sentiment is unreserved: "It's hard to overstate how difficult the market is" — even though bottom-up data points such as memory pricing, compute pricing, supply-demand visibility, and third-quarter earnings remain strong, the AI and semiconductor sectors have entered a "rolling bear market" since this summer, cumulatively declining approximately 40% from their highs, while macro uncertainty surrounding policy and congressional direction remains "hard to model."

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/376367

Key points

BlockBeats reports that Peter Callahan, Goldman Sachs' chief expert for the technology, media, and telecommunications sector, stated that the Nasdaq 100 Index is retesting a key benchmark trendline connecting the April 2025 low and the March 2026 low.
The Nasdaq 100 Index closed at approximately 26,630 points last Thursday and at 26,990 points on Friday, representing a potential decline of about 15% from the support level near approximately 23,000 points around the March 2026 low.
The Nasdaq 100 Index fell approximately 5% last week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has fallen a cumulative 28% over the past 22 trading days. The report cites Callahan as saying that only a few instances since 1997 are comparable to this pace of decline.
The comparison periods mentioned in the report include the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis of 2008, and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Realized volatility on Goldman Sachs' flagship semiconductor stock basket rose to 93, the highest level since April of this year.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This is a market report relaying the views of Goldman Sachs analysts. The core message is: the Nasdaq 100 Index is approaching a trendline considered important, and if it breaks below, the chart described in the report shows that the area around approximately 23,000 points may be the next support level; meanwhile, the semiconductor sector's recent decline and volatility are both very high.

Why it matters to readers

If technology stocks and the semiconductor sector continue to weaken, it could put pressure on related indices and market risk sentiment; however, whether the trendline is breached remains a conditional judgment.

A trendline is a reference line investors use to observe price support or resistance; breaking below it does not necessarily mean continued decline, and this article is not definitive buy or sell advice.

Risks and unknowns

The report did not provide the original Goldman Sachs weekly report or independent data verification.
The comparability of historical periods mentioned in the article is an analyst's judgment and does not mean the current market will necessarily repeat the same trajectory.
Whether the Nasdaq 100 Index breaks below the described trendline, and whether subsequent support levels hold, has not yet been confirmed.

Goldman Sachs says the Nasdaq 100 index is testing a key trendline

Article

AI-assisted interpretation

Why it matters to readers

Risks and unknowns

Related Developments

Related concepts

Keep following

Security Center