Bitcoin's annualized volatility is approximately 46%，2026 year's extreme-market days have exceeded 2018 year's full-year total

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Bitcoin's annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but the number of extreme market moves this year has already exceeded 2018 the bear market year

BlockBeats reports that October 10, Bitcoin 2026 year to date has seen 10 days with "3 standard deviations," exceeding 2018 bear market year's full-year total of 8 occurrences. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has fallen from 2018 year's 84%to approximately 46%, extreme market moves remain frequent relative to recent price volatility levels.

A "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from their recent normal volatility range. Data show that the average gain or loss for Bitcoin's extreme market moves of this type this year was approximately 7%, lower than the approximately 2018 in 10%. Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been approximately 47%, close to Nvidia's, but Bitcoin recorded 26 days with "3 standard deviations" during the same period, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 occurrences, the S&P 500 Index's 16 occurrences, and gold's 12 occurrences.

Market participants pointed out that macro shocks and leverage and position concentration in the derivatives market are important factors behind the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell large amounts of options and bet that the market will remain calm, unexpected news may force the relevant positions to be liquidated in a concentrated manner, further amplifying price volatility.

Deribit's CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models have difficulty adequately measuring tail risk under extreme market conditions, and investors should pay greater attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. At the same time, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also strengthening the market's ability to absorb shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/371129

Key points

BlockBeats said that, as of October 10, Bitcoin's 2026 year to date has seen 10 days with “3 standard deviations,” exceeding 2018 year's full-year total of 8 occurrences.
The report stated that Bitcoin's annualized volatility has fallen from 2018 year's 84%to approximately 46%。
The report's data show that 2026 year's average gain or loss for Bitcoin's extreme market moves of this type was approximately 7%, lower than approximately 2018 in 10%。
The report stated that since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been approximately 47%, with 26 days with “3 standard deviations” recorded during the same period.
The report listed the number of “3 standard deviation” days during the same period as follows: Nvidia, 8 occurrences; the S&P 500 Index, 16 occurrences; gold, 12 occurrences.
Market participants pointed out that macro shocks, derivatives leverage, and position concentration are important factors behind the continued occurrence of extreme volatility.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk models have difficulty adequately measuring tail risk under extreme market conditions, and investors should pay greater attention to indicators such as Expected Shortfall.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

Annualized volatility reflects the extent of overall price fluctuations over a period; a “3 standard deviation” trading day indicates that the day's price change deviated significantly from the recent normal range. The report's intended point is that although Bitcoin's normal overall price fluctuation is lower than in 2018 years, unusually turbulent trading days have not disappeared and occur relatively often.

Why it matters to readers

Lower annualized volatility does not mean lower extreme risk. The report suggests that when unexpected news, leverage, and concentrated positions act together, prices may still change rapidly and substantially, while traditional risk indicators may also underestimate tail risk.

Beginners should not assess risk based solely on overall volatility; they should also watch for short-term price shocks that may result from extreme market conditions, leverage, and concentrated liquidations.

Risks and unknowns

The original text does not provide the statistical data source, sample window, or the specific calculation methodology for “3 standard deviations,” so the relevant figures cannot be independently verified on this basis.
The relationship between macro shocks, leverage, and position concentration and extreme volatility is attributed to market participants' views; the original text provides no supporting verification materials.
The original text provides no quantitative basis for whether institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management have in fact strengthened the market's ability to absorb shocks.

Bitcoin's annualized volatility is approximately 46%，2026 year's extreme-market days have exceeded 2018 year's full-year total

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