Prediction Market Trading Volume Retreats from Peak, Kalshi Continues to Lead Polymarket
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DefiLlama Research says prediction market weekly trading volume fell 25.8% from its late-June peak but still reached $3.72 billion; Kalshi outperformed Polymarket during the recent pullback.
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Key points
Are Prediction Markets Still Hot? Credit: DefiLlama Research · © DefiLlama Research According to Google Trends, searches for Prediction Markets peaked in March, and the latest data shows a decline — from 86 points in July, to 36 points in August. That being said, Google Trends is not the most reliable indicator of growth. At best, it is a good barometer of retail sentiment for certain topics, but a singular data point does not give much information about the state of prediction markets today. Bu
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
No additional explanation is available beyond the summary.
Why it matters to readers
The material comes from a professional research institution and provides relatively complete statistical definitions, time ranges, and platform breakdowns, with the core conclusion supported by multiple sets of trading volume data. However, some fee and TVL data cover only Polymarket International, data definitions differ across external platforms, and the view that the pullback was mainly caused by the end of the World Cup remains an interpretation rather than a verified causal relationship.
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Risks and unknowns
- Whether prediction market weekly trading volume can stabilize after the World Cup or continue to remain below $3.72 billion
- Changes in the monthly trading volume and market share of Kalshi and Polymarket
- The proportion of Robinhood orders migrated to Rothera and its impact on Kalshi’s trading volume
- Further developments concerning Polymarket’s technical maintenance, fee structure, and regulatory investigation
- Whether crypto, macroeconomic, and political contracts can supplement trading volume after the sports-event off-season
Related Developments
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