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Bitunix analyst: Sticky inflation constrains policy room;AI asset valuations and the safe-haven function of US Treasuries face a test
According to BlockBeats,October 20, global markets have seen a noteworthy pricing divergence: US September CPI rose month-on-month 0.6%, while core CPI rose 0.3%, indicating that inflationary pressure has not yet subsided. However, 10-year US Treasury yields posted February their largest weekly decline since last week. Oil prices briefly rose to 110 USD per barrel, while bond yields instead declined, showing that markets are no longer projecting interest rates solely based on energy prices, but are beginning to weigh the risks of slowing economic growth and overly tight monetary policy.
There are still explanations for this divergence. If the pullback in AI-related stocks reflects cooling corporate investment and future demand, inflation may ease as economic momentum weakens, allowing US Treasuries' safe-haven function to recover. However, if the bond rally is primarily driven by short covering and an oversold correction, it cannot be taken as confirmation that the economic outlook has weakened. Hassett stressed that inflation still requires serious attention, also implying that strong consumption could prolong price pressures and that the Federal Reserve is still unlikely to pivot easily toward easing in the near term.AI asset valuation divergence further confirms that the market is raising its return threshold. South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice, despite year-on-year revenue growth of 200%in the first half and turning operating-profitable, still saw its share price fall 32%below its offering price at one point on its first trading day. This shows that high growth and improving profitability may not necessarily offset concerns over valuation and subsequent capital requirements. Meanwhile, the NYSE expanded options trading hours for popular individual stocks and ETF, reflecting investors' increased demand for cross-time-zone risk-management tools; however, extended trading does not mean liquidity will be equally sufficient during all hours.
For the crypto market, the key factors to watch remain changes in real interest rates,USD funding conditions, and risk appetite. If inflation remains persistently high and interest rates stay restrictive, risk-asset valuations will face pressure; if the bond market reflects cooling growth, short-term safe-haven demand and deleveraging may also precede improved liquidity. Going forward, subsequent inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and whether AI assets can sustain their valuations will determine whether this market divergence is a temporary position adjustment or a repricing of growth and interest-rate expectations.