CryptoQuant: Analyst Consensus Index Falls into Clearly Bearish Zone
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AT A GLANCE
CryptoQuant says the consensus among Bitcoin analysts has clearly weakened, but there is an inconsistency between the reported sample size and the bullish percentage.
BlockBeats news, November 11, CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin analyst sentiment has become increasingly bearish. The analyst consensus index fell from -1.0 σ to -1.8 σ over 7 days, during which the Bitcoin price retreated to around 73000 USD. Over the past 7 days, among the 149 analysts with clear positions, 88 were bullish and 59 were bearish, with bulls accounting for approximately 62%. While still slightly leaning bullish in absolute terms, this represents a significant decline relative to recent norms. ETF outflows, inflation concerns, and Nasdaq weakness are weighing on market sentiment.
The index tracks bullish and bearish statements on Bitcoin made by analysts covered by CryptoQuant on platforms such as X, Seeking Alpha, and Substack. After aggregating one vote per person, it is compared against the norm of the past 90 days. A negative value indicates that current consensus is more bearish than the recent norm, and reaching or falling below -1.5 σ marks clearly bearish territory.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/376784
Key points
01
According to BlockBeats, CryptoQuant stated that the analyst consensus index fell from -1.0 σ to -1.8 σ within 7 days, while Bitcoin's price retreated to around 73000 USD during the same period.
02
The report lists 149 analysts with a clear stance over the past 7 days, of whom 88 are bullish and 59 are bearish, and states that bulls account for about 62%.
03
This index tracks the bullish and bearish stances on Bitcoin expressed by analysts covered by CryptoQuant on platforms such as X, Seeking Alpha, and Substack, aggregated on a one-person-one-vote basis and compared against the normal state over the past 90 days.
04
According to the criteria described in the report, a negative index indicates that consensus is more bearish than the recent norm, and reaching or falling below -1.5 σ is marked as the clearly bearish range.
05
The report attributed the drag on market sentiment to ETF outflows, inflation concerns, and weakness in the Nasdaq.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
Here, "clearly bearish" means that analysts' attitudes have become more pessimistic relative to the norm over the past 90 days; it does not mean that the number of bears has exceeded the number of bulls. The original text still lists more bulls than bears, but the specific numbers and proportions need to be verified.
Why it matters to readers
This message provides a metric for observing shifts in Bitcoin analysts' sentiment; the focus of interpretation is on weakening relative to normal conditions, rather than directly interpreting negative values as indicating that most people are bearish.
Distinguish between "sentiment is more pessimistic than in the past" and "the majority are bearish." This report does not prove that the index can predict the subsequent price direction.
Risks and unknowns
The 88 bullish and 59 bearish individuals listed in the original text total 147, which is inconsistent with the overall total of 149.
Calculated based on the 88 bullish analysts listed in the original text out of a total of 149, the proportion of bullish analysts is about 59%, which is inconsistent with the approximately 62% stated in the report.
The evidence does not provide the original list of analysts or records of their statements, making it impossible to independently verify the index and sample data.
The impact of ETF fund outflows, inflation concerns, and Nasdaq weakness on sentiment is an attribution in the report, and the evidence does not provide further verification.
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The index only covers analysts tracked by CryptoQuant, and whether it represents broader market sentiment cannot be confirmed.
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