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U.S. data centers by 2028 may face 32GW power shortfall,ASIC, storage and optical module supply chains under pressure
BlockBeats news,October 7, Morgan Stanley's latest report states that U.S. data centers 2026 from 2028 to 34%are expected to face a net power shortfall of approximately, equivalent to 32GW. The power bottleneck may shift from a "chip shortage" to a "power shortage," initially affecting ASIC, storage, optical modules, power management, and analog chip supply-chain tail-end segments.
The report believes that, due to greater visibility into final chip deployment locations and global footprints that reduce reliance on the U.S. single market, Nvidia and Broadcom's 2027 earnings forecasts are not materially affected for now; by contrast,ASIC is more sensitive to power resources, while products such as storage, optics, and power management are more susceptible to data-center project delays, facing risks of deferred or cancelled orders and inventory adjustments.
Morgan Stanley noted that Oracle's Wisconsin 1.3GW"Project Lighthouse" has become a real-world manifestation of this risk: full-power supply to the project may be delayed until as late as 2028 October, with the downside scenario potentially extending to spring 2029. Even if AI servers have already been installed in racks, they cannot be converted into actual computing capacity and revenue without sufficient power.
The report estimates that, under the base case, new U.S. gas turbine and engine capacity from 2026 to 2028 will total approximately 19GW, while Bloom Energy fuel cells are expected to contribute approximately 6GW. Nuclear power and crypto-mining site conversions could also provide supplementary capacity, but collectively remain insufficient to close the power gap. Meanwhile, overseas expansion is constrained by factors such as permitting and geopolitics, making it difficult to shift demand quickly.
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