Analysis states that MSCI The new rules may result in Strategy (MSTR) being excluded from the index; the final list awaits November announcement.

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Analysis: Is Strategy's countdown to index exclusion an opportunity or a trap? The key is whether its “financing flywheel” can keep turning.

According to BlockBeats,October 20, market analyst Murphy stated that October 15 MSCI formally approved new rules to exclude non-operating companies that do not meet the criteria from global investable market indices. In a previous simulated screening,MSTR(Strategy) was included on the proposed exclusion list. The final results will be announced on November 11,November 30 taking effect. Following the announcement,MSTR fell sharply. Funds tracking the relevant indices currently hold approximately 13000000 shares of MSTR, valued at nearly 1800000000 USD, equivalent to 30 of its average daily trading volume. Although this passive selling pressure is substantial, it is not impossible to absorb. The real question is where future active demand will come from. At a time when 60%spot BTC is already quite mature, why would investors not buy ETF directly, instead taking on additional management fees, financing costs, and share dilution risk to buy a company that only holds ETF? Strategy must demonstrate that it can use capital operations to continuously grow net BTC equity per share.BTC Equity continues to grow.

This leads to the core logic of MSTR’s “financing flywheel.” Assume the company holds 100 units of BTC and has issued 100 shares, corresponding to 1 units of BTC per share. If the market assigns a 1.5 x premium (mNAV), issuing 20 additional shares can raise funds equivalent to 30 units of BTC. After the purchase, holdings increase to 130 units, total shares rise to 120 shares, and the amount of currency per share rises to 1.083 units. Even if the price of BTC remains unchanged, existing shareholders’ equity increases. However, the flywheel requires conditions: the market must be willing to assign a sufficient premium, and the premium contraction must not offset equity growth. Therefore,MSTR’s investment returns depend on variables:BTC price, net BTC equity per share, and mNAV(the premium the market is willing to pay).

Based on these variables,MSTR has possible future paths.

Path 1：BTC rises while mNAV expands simultaneously;MSTR will receive the dual benefits of asset appreciation and valuation expansion, materially outperforming BTC。

Path 2：BTC rises but mNAV remains low;MSTR may still outperform through capital leverage and growth in per-share equity, though its excess returns would come only from asset appreciation. Path 3：BTC rises but mNAV continues to compress. If equity growth cannot offset the valuation contraction,MSTR will underperform BTC。

This year,July Strategy revised the mNAV metric. At the close,October 16 was 1.08 x, representing a relatively limited premium. Ultimately, buying BTC is a bet on the long-term value of the asset itself, while buying MSTR adds another layer of confidence in Saylor’s capital-management ability.

Key points

According to BlockBeats, market analyst Murphy stated that MSCI formally approved new rules on October 15 to exclude non-operating companies that do not meet the criteria from global investable market indices.
Murphy stated that MSTR was included on the proposed exclusion list in the prior simulated screening, with final results to be announced on November 11 and to take effect on November 30.
The original article stated that, following the announcement,MSTR fell sharply.
The original article stated that funds tracking the relevant indices currently hold approximately 13000000 shares MSTR, valued at nearly 1800000000 USD, equivalent to 30 of its average daily trading volume. 60%。
The article believes that MSTR’s investment returns depend on BTC price, net BTC equity per share, and mNAV— variables.
The article stated that Strategy revised the July metric in mNAV, and at the close,October 16 was mNAV for 1.08 x.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

The core point of the article is not that it MSTR will definitely be removed, but that it had previously been placed on the proposed removal list, with the final outcome yet to be announced. The article argues that even if index funds engage in passive selling, the long-term question remains whether the market is willing to continue purchasing it at a price higher than its BTC net asset value MSTR. The so-called “financing flywheel” involves the company issuing additional shares when its stock trades at a premium, then using the proceeds to purchase BTC, thereby attempting to increase the amount of BTC represented by each share; if the premium is insufficient or continues to contract, this mechanism may become less effective.

Why it matters to readers

If MSTR is ultimately excluded from the relevant indices, index-tracking funds may need to adjust their holdings. Meanwhile, a lower mNAV may affect Strategy’s ability to raise capital through additional share issuance and increase net BTC equity per share. Investors therefore bear not only BTC price fluctuations, but also valuation-premium, financing-cost, and share-dilution risks.

Beginners should distinguish between directly holding BTC, purchasing BTC spot ETF and purchasing MSTR stock: the article points out that,MSTR in addition to BTC price risk, this also involves the company’s capital operations, management fees, financing costs, share dilution, and changes in mNAV. Being on the proposed removal list does not mean that the asset will ultimately be removed.

Analysis states that MSCI The new rules may result in Strategy (MSTR) being excluded from the index; the final list awaits November announcement.

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