Analyst says BTC realized profit during the second rally August was lower than at the peak 19%

AT A GLANCE

BTC At the second rally's peak, 7 day realized profit was lower than in the first rally by 19%, while short-term holders remained profitable overall.

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Analysis:BTC realized profit declined 19%, with weaker profit-taking than August BlockBeats reported that September 29, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr wrote that although Bitcoin's price rose further to 87000 USD nearby, profit-taking was weaker than August. During the second rally's peak, the market's realized profit was lower than at the first rally's peak by 19%, while realized losses also declined. Data showed that August 26 At the first rally's peak,BTC price was approximately 78600 USD; over the past 7 days, realized profit reached 9100000000 USD；September 24 At the second rally's peak,BTC price rose to 84100 USD, but realized profit over the past 7 days was only 7300000000 USD, down 19%.

During the same period, realized losses over the past 7 days fell from 2600000000 USD to 1500000000 USD. As of September 28, Bitcoin's net realized profit over the past 7 days was 4300000000 USD. Looking at short-term holders (STH）SOPR), this metric has remained above August 20 since 1, meaning that the BTC transferred by short-term holders overall remains profitable, although the profit margin is narrowing.August 26 At the peak,STH SOPR the corresponding profit margin was 2.8%；September 23 At the peak, it fell to 1.6%; as of September 28 it declined further to 1%.

Axel Adler Jr noted that during the period when September 17 BTC pulled back to 76500 USD,STH SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, and the profit margin on BTC transferred by short-term holders narrowed to 0.3%at one point, but the metric did not fall below 1, meaning that short-term holders overall had not yet moved into a loss position. Axel Adler Jr said that a higher BTC price did not bring larger-scale profit-taking. This may mean that some holders are not in a hurry to sell and may be waiting for higher prices. However, this metric alone cannot confirm that holders are definitely waiting for higher prices. He noted that if BTC returns to 87200 USD the peak again, holders' unrealized profit will increase further as long as the cost basis remains unchanged. A deterioration signal to watch for next is STH SOPR falling below 1, while the realized profit and loss metric turns negative.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/369508

Key points

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said that during the second rally's peak,BTC over the past 7 days, realized profit was lower than at the first rally's peak by 19%。
August 26 BTC price was approximately 78600 USD, and over the past 7 days, realized profit was 9100000000 USD。
September 24 BTC price rose to 84100 USD, and over the past 7 days, realized profit was 7300000000 USD。
Over the past 7 days, realized losses fell from 2600000000 USD to 1500000000 USD。
As of September 28，BTC over the past 7 days, net realized profit was 4300000000 USD。
Since August 20, short-term holders'SOPR has remained above 1.
Short-term holders'SOPR corresponding profit margin fell from August 26 at 2.8%to September 23 at 1.6%, and as of September 28 it declined further to 1%。
September 17 BTC During the pullback to 76500 USD,STH SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, and the profit margin temporarily fell to 0.3%, but did not fall below 1。

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

Realized profit reflects the scale of profits that have already been sold and realized. Data showed that September during the second rally, realized profit and short-term-holder profit margins were both below the August peak, but short-term holders overall had not yet moved into a loss position.

Why it matters to readers

Profit-taking was weaker than at the August peak, and short-term holders remained profitable; however, these metrics alone cannot confirm that holders are definitely waiting for higher prices.

These metrics can be used to observe whether investors collectively sell for profit during a rally, but they cannot alone determine the next direction of BTC price.

Risks and unknowns

The evidence does not provide CryptoQuant's original on-chain data or specific calculation methodology.
The statement that “some holders are not in a hurry to sell and may be waiting for higher prices” is an analyst inference and cannot be confirmed by this metric alone.
The next deterioration signal to monitor is STH SOPR whether it falls below 1, and whether the realized profit and loss metric turns negative.

Analyst says BTC realized profit during the second rally August was lower than at the peak 19%

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