With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, historical data show that BTC after the election 1 annual gains once occurred

AT A GLANCE

Following the three historical midterm elections, 12 months BTC all saw gains, but there were sharp short-term declines, and the sample size is limited, so direct extrapolation is inadvisable.

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Midterm Elections BTC Performance Review: Market bottoms often occur around elections; following past elections, 1 annual gains were substantial

BlockBeats reports that November 2, the U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. Looking back at crypto market performance during past election periods, Bitcoin exhibited a pattern of relative weakness in election years and recovery in the year after 1 elections. According to HTX market data, 2014、2018、2022 within the three midterm elections in 12 months after the elections, Bitcoin rose by approximately 24.5%、44.9%and 92.3%.

Meanwhile, the midterm election years themselves were mostly bear markets, with Bitcoin declining by approximately 2014 for the full year 56%、2018 approximately 73%、2022 approximately 64%. The fourth quarter of those years also mostly generated negative returns, with 2014 Q4 approximately -16.7%、2018 approximately -42%、2022 approximately -14.8%. Short-term volatility was even more pronounced. For example, after the 2018 election, 1 months later, it had fallen sharply by approximately 45.5%, before gradually rebounding. Market bottoms often occurred around elections: in 2014, approximately 71 days after the midterm election; in 2018, approximately 38 days afterward; and in 2022, approximately 13 days afterward.

Notably, midterm elections overlap significantly with Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle. Compared with the midterms themselves, macro liquidity and cycle positioning have a greater impact. Historical samples are limited and should not be extrapolated linearly.

In this midterm election, U.S. voters will elect all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and multiple governorships, directly determining who controls Congress during the remainder of Trump's 2-year term. Republicans currently control both chambers by narrow margins (approximately 218-214 in the House and 53-47 in the Senate), but Trump's approval rating has fallen to a historic low of around 32%. Factors including inflation, the Iran war, and tariff policies have triggered voter dissatisfaction. Polls generally show Democrats leading nationwide, and most forecasting models believe Democrats have a relatively high probability of winning the House, while the Senate remains closely contested. Republicans are making every effort to retain their majorities, but historical patterns show that the party in power often loses in midterm elections.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/374987

Key points

The original article states that the U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3.
According to HTX market data, 2014、2018、2022 within 12 months after the midterm elections, Bitcoin rose by approximately 24.5%、44.9%and 92.3%。
Bitcoin declined by approximately 2014 in 2018, 2022 and 56%、73%for the full years, respectively. 64%。
2014 In the fourth quarters of 2018, 2022 and -16.7%、-42%, returns were approximately -14.8%。
2018 After the 1 election, within 45.5%months, Bitcoin once fell by approximately, before gradually rebounding.
The original article states that market bottoms in 2014, 2018 and 2022 occurred approximately 71 days after the midterm elections, 38 days, and 13 days, respectively.
The original article believes that midterm elections overlap significantly with Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, that macro liquidity and cycle positioning have a greater impact, and notes that historical samples are limited.
The original article states that this election will elect all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and multiple governorships.
The original article states that Republicans currently control both chambers, with approximately 218 to 214 in the House and 53 to 47。
The original article states that polls generally show Democrats leading nationwide, with most forecasting models indicating that Democrats are more likely to win the House, while the Senate remains closely contested.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This article compares BTC price movements around the past three U.S. midterm elections. Historically,BTC was generally weak in election years, but recorded gains within 12 months after the elections; this does not mean it will rise immediately after an election, because 2018 months after the 1 election, it still experienced a notable decline.

Why it matters to readers

These historical data can be used to observe volatility BTC around elections, but the original article also emphasizes that macro liquidity and Bitcoin's 4-year cycle may be more important than the midterm elections themselves.

Beginners should not treat the three historical gains as a certain pattern; they should distinguish between post-election 1-year performance and short-term post-election performance, and monitor actual election results,BTC short-term volatility, and changes in macro liquidity.

Risks and unknowns

The historical statistics include only three samples: 2014, 2018 and 2022, and cannot confirm that the same price movement will recur this time.
The polls and forecasting models in the article are merely pre-election assessments; actual control of Congress has not yet been determined.
Claims regarding Trump's approval rating, war, tariffs, and voter sentiment are stated only by the original article, which provides no specific polling data or independently verified materials.
It cannot be confirmed from the original text alone that there is a causal relationship between the midterm elections and BTC price movements.

With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, historical data show that BTC after the election 1 annual gains once occurred

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