Analyst: Bitcoin power-law model indicates 157800 USD or may be the next reference target price
BIBIBI
AT A GLANCE
Darkfost said that, based on the current power-law model parameters, the Bitcoin reference level may be 157800 USD。
Article
Analyst: Bitcoin power-law model indicates 157800 USD or may be the next reference target price
PANews October 6 reported that crypto analyst Darkfost stated that over the past decade, the amplitude of Bitcoin price fluctuations around the “Power Law” trendline has gradually decreased, market-cycle volatility has tended to converge, and the oscillation indicator peak has fallen from 2018 year’s +169 to 2025 year’s +102, while its daily-change standard deviation also fell from 4.81 to 2.47, a decrease of approximately 49%. Darkfost stated that, as of October 3, the model’s oscillation indicator was +34.5, and Bitcoin’s price was approximately 84700 USD. Based on the model parameters for that day, an oscillation indicator of +100 corresponds to a Bitcoin price of approximately 157800 USD, about 86%above the current price. He also noted that 157800 USD is not a fixed target price, but a reference level calculated based on the current regression parameters; if the power-law trendline continues to rise in the future...
Key points
01
Darkfost stated that over the past decade, the amplitude of Bitcoin price fluctuations around the power-law trendline has gradually decreased.
02
The oscillation indicator peak fell from 2018 year’s +169 to 2025 year’s +102。
03
The daily-change standard deviation fell from 4.81 to 2.47, a decrease of approximately 49%。
04
As of October 3, the model’s oscillation indicator was +34.5, and Bitcoin’s price was approximately 84700 USD。
05
Based on the model parameters for that day, an oscillation indicator of +100 corresponds to a Bitcoin price of approximately 157800 USD, about 86%。
06
Darkfost noted that 157800 USD is not a fixed target price, but a reference level calculated based on the current regression parameters.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This is a model that estimates prices using the historical relationship between price and the power-law trendline. The 157800 USD, as reported, is the reference level obtained when the oscillation indicator reaches +100 and the current model parameters remain valid; it does not represent a price that will definitely be reached.
Why it matters to readers
The model provides a reference for Bitcoin’s potential price, but the reference level is affected by changes in the trendline and model parameters.
The power-law model is a tool for fitting trends based on historical data; prices calculated by the model are not guaranteed and do not constitute investment advice.
Risks and unknowns
The article does not state whether the oscillation indicator will continue to rise from +34.5 to +100。
157800 USD is a model reference level, not a fixed target price.
The original text is truncated at “if the power-law trendline continues to rise in the future”; subsequent conditions and conclusions are unknown.
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Related concepts
Power-law trendline
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