US CPI release, the Federal Reserve’s October rate hike probability rose to 43.7%
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US September CPI exceeded expectations, the market’s probability of a Fed October rate hike rose to 43.7%。
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US CPI After the release, the Federal Reserve’s October rate hike probability rose to 43.7%, doubling from before the data release
PANews October 14 reported, citing the Securities Times, that the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders’ bets on a Fed October rate hike of 25 basis points continued to strengthen, with the rate hike probability rising to 43.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged fell to 56.3%. Compared with before the release of the US September CPI data, the rate hike probability had risen from 21.6%by 22.1 percentage points. US September CPI rose 3.7%year on year, above the market expectation of 3.6%, further boosting market expectations for a Fed rate hike this month.
CME FedWatch shows that traders’ bets on a Fed October rate hike of 25 basis points rose to 43.7%。
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The probability of keeping rates unchanged fell to 56.3%。
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US September CPI rose 3.7%year on year, above the market expectation of 3.6%。
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US September CPI before the release, the rate hike probability was 21.6%; after the release, it rose by 22.1 percentage points.
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The report source is PANews, which cited the Securities Times.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
43.7%This is an estimate of the rate hike probability formed by traders based on market trading, not a decision already made by the Federal Reserve.CPI After the data exceeded expectations, this market estimate rose markedly.
Why it matters to readers
The market is reassessing whether the Federal Reserve will October raise rates; subsequent policy meetings and inflation and employment data may affect this probability.
This can be understood as follows: the market believes that the possibility of a October rate hike is higher than before the CPI release, but remains lower than the possibility of keeping rates unchanged.
Risks and unknowns
The report did not provide a CME FedWatch page or link to the original statistics.
The evidence does not indicate whether the Federal Reserve will ultimately raise rates at October the rate hike.
The evidence does not provide the actual price reactions of US stocks,USD, gold, or crypto assets.
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CPI
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