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Analysis:Marvell Potential acquisition Lumentum could achieve the first deep closed loop between “chips and optics,” with vertical integration enhancing overall value
According to BlockBeats,October 31, according to a Bloomberg October 28 report,Marvell is in advanced talks with optical component manufacturer Lumentum to consider acquiring the latter in an all-stock transaction. At the time of the report,Lumentum had a market capitalization of approximately 83000000000 USD,Marvell approximately 221000000000 USD. Cignal market research analysts Andrew Schmitt and Scott Wilkinson said on the Semi Doped podcast that the core rationale for the potential transaction is vertical integration, rather than a lack of laser supply at AI. If the transaction is completed,Marvell could integrate digital signal processors, lasers, and optical components, improving product performance through co-design, controlling the supply chain, and selling more complete solutions.
Andrew noted that gross margins in the optical components industry have risen from approximately Marvell in the past to nearly DSP, changing the economic rationale for chip companies to acquire optical businesses. 25% 50%Lumentum has scarce technology in products such as 200G EML, optical circuit switches (OCS), and high-power lasers. He believes that vertical integration, even if it affects the combined gross-margin percentage, could generate a greater gross-profit amount.
However, Scott cautioned that Marvell's coherent DSP is used by many optical module manufacturers. If it further enters the optical engine and module markets after the acquisition, it could compete directly with existing customers. Andrew believes the company needs to assure its existing DSP customers and Lumentum's optical customers that existing supply relationships will not be affected.
The two analysts also emphasized that competition in optical communications depends not only on being first to launch products, but also on the ability to deliver at scale. Scott said that being first to market but able to produce only 10000 products may not outperform a competitor that enters somewhat later but has production capacity in the millions.Lumentum has expanded its indium phosphide production capacity in multiple rounds, but still struggles to meet demand from all customers. Regarding discussion that NVIDIA may participate in a bidding war, Andrew stated explicitly that he has no deal-related insider information and that the relevant judgment is only his personal speculation.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/374813