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Barclays expects US-Iran conflict to persist, with a stalemate that could last through Trump’s term
BlockBeats reported on November 13 that Barclays puts the chance of the US-Iran conflict ending within one year at less than half and now treats a prolonged conflict as its base case. Analyst Michael McLean says both sides believe time is on their side, a substantial agreement is highly unlikely soon, and the US may face a stalemate without full-scale war or peace through the end of Trump’s term.
Barclays identifies three paths for the US: escalation, preserving the status quo, or withdrawal. It sees a prolonged stalemate as most likely, with intermittent reciprocal strikes, little movement in nuclear talks, and continued US control of the Strait of Hormuz. It says Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered to around 85% of prewar levels and the world economy can better absorb oil shocks, reducing pressure to end the conflict soon.
Historical data also suggest longer wars are less likely to end soon. Barclays cites 95 interstate wars from 1823 to 2003. Wars that had already lasted 6 to 12 months had about a 57% chance of ending within one year. Wars that had lasted eight months had an average remaining duration of 1.8 years.
Further US escalation risks Iranian retaliation and opposition from Gulf states. A unilateral withdrawal could cost US control of the Strait of Hormuz and damage its regional influence and international credibility. Barclays sees substantial barriers to both, making the status quo more likely.