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Analysis: Bitcoin may test 90000 USD, but leverage risks are heating up
BlockBeats reports that September 22, Bitcoin broke through 82000 USD key resistance and reached as high as 87300 USD, with approximately 750000000 USD of bearish crypto derivatives positions liquidated, while buying from short position closures further drove prices higher. Since the breakout, Bitcoin derivatives open interest has increased by approximately 2000000000 USD, indicating that market leverage is rapidly returning.
Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said that currently, “the price is turning bullish faster than positions are changing.” U.S. spot BTC ETFs, previously hindered by the CLARITY Act and Federal Reserve rate hikes, saw combined outflows of 746000000 USD on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by inflows of 160000000 USD and 433000000 USD on Thursday and Friday, respectively. U.S.BTC ETF holders’ average cost is approximately 82200 USD, and as BTC broke above that level, ETF investors overall returned to profitability.
Looking ahead, Sondergaard considers 87000 USD the next key level, followed by 90000 USD and approximately 92000 USD; Wintermute trader Jasper De Maere also believes that BTC may test 90000 USD. However, he noted that breaking above the 50-week moving average is merely a positive signal, and significant volatility may still occur in the short term.
The market is currently watching whether spot and ETF flows can continue to follow through. Sondergaard warned that if spot demand cannot match the growth in derivatives leverage, the rally could become a leverage-driven rise and rapidly reverse amid rising Treasury yields or geopolitical shocks. Wintermute recommends closely monitoring ETF flows, perpetual futures open interest and funding rates over the next few days, as well as Friday’s options expiry.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/368308