Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound before the rate decision and potentially test 80000 USD
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AT A GLANCE
Cloud believes Bitcoin may remain range-bound between 80000 and 84000 USD before the rate decision, and may first test the 80000 USD lower bound.
Article
Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin will likely continue to trade range-bound before the rate decision, 80000 USD with the lower bound potentially tested first
PANews October 21 reported that Bitcoin has recently 2 weeks been trapped in the 80000 to 84000 USD range. Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes this essentially reflects two offsetting forces:ETF for consecutive 2 weeks, net outflows have continued, while exchange holdings have kept flowing out and long-term holders have only been taking moderate profits. In the 1 weeks before the Federal Reserve rate decision, Bitcoin will likely continue to wait within its range.CME only assigns October rate hikes 16%a pricing probability of, while economists generally believe the odds are close to even. This gap between pricing and disagreement will discourage capital from placing bets in advance. If the market chooses a direction early, the likelihood of a downside test is slightly higher: funding rates remain elevated, and options skew continues to favor puts, indicating that longs have not yet been fully cleared and demand for downside protection is still increasing. However, 80000 USD below, over the past 1 months, effective support has formed multiple times, making a downside break more likely to be a false breakout. Breakout confirmation signals fall into groups; an upside move requires the daily chart...
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🔗https://www.panewslab.com/zh/articles/01a15c70-5f2e-71b1-b2ee-5df73dfa711f
Key points
01
PANews stated that Bitcoin has been in the 2 to 80000 range for the past 84000 USD weeks.
02
Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud believes that ETF for consecutive 2 weeks, there have been net outflows, while exchange holdings have continued to flow out and long-term holders have taken moderate profits.
03
Cloud believes that in the 1 weeks before the Federal Reserve rate decision, Bitcoin will likely continue waiting within the range.
04
The original article stated that the market pricing for CME a October rate hike is 16%, while economists generally believe the probability is close to even.
05
Cloud believes that if the market chooses a direction early, the likelihood of a downside test is slightly higher.
06
The original article stated that funding rates remain elevated and options skew continues to favor puts.
07
The original article stated that 80000 USD below, over the past 1 months, effective support has formed multiple times; Cloud believes a downside break is more likely to be a false breakout.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
This is an analyst's assessment of the short-term trend: Bitcoin has recently fluctuated within a price range, with bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other. The analyst believes that capital may remain on the sidelines before the rate decision is announced; if the price chooses a direction first, the likelihood of testing 80000 USD to the downside is slightly higher, but this does not necessarily mean it will break below.
Why it matters to readers
Divergent interest-rate expectations before the rate decision, together with ETF capital flows, funding rates, and options skew, may affect traders' risk appetite and short-term position management.
Novices should regard the price direction in the article as an analytical view rather than a certain forecast, focus on distinguishing “testing support,” “valid breakdown,” and “false breakout,” and avoid chasing rises or selling declines based solely on a single view.
Risks and unknowns
The trend assessment is a forecast and has not yet been validated by subsequent price performance.
The main body of the evidence is truncated at “an upward move requires a daily chart,” making it impossible to confirm the complete breakout signal.
The original text only states “October 21” and does not specify the year.
It is not possible to confirm solely on the basis of the evidence CME the specific data sources underlying the pricing and the economist’s assessment.
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Related concepts
ETF Net outflows
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