Wintermute: Caution still needed before Bitcoin returns to the 75500 USD moving average

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BlockBeats, citing Wintermute's view: caution is still needed before Bitcoin returns to the 50-week moving average of about 75500 USD; the relevant data has not been independently verified.

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Wintermute: Caution still needed before Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average at 75500 USD

BlockBeats news, November 10: Wintermute posted that after the U.S. midterm elections, Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress, and the market began reassessing the regulatory risks facing the AI industry; the AI trade previously boosted by favorable Washington policy has cooled. If the Federal Reserve raises rates during an AI asset pullback, tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite could simultaneously pressure the crypto market.

On the crypto market side, Bitcoin rebounded to 81000 USD at one point last Wednesday, but then largely gave back the gains, falling to a low of 73500 USD on Sunday, close to the 200-day moving average of 73000 USD. Bitcoin's weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average of about 75500 USD, ending a streak of 7 consecutive weeks above that average. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of 1280000000 USD last week, the largest weekly outflow since June, wiping out cumulative net inflows for the year; only Wednesday recorded net inflows during the week. Meanwhile, more than 1000000000 USD in positions were liquidated market-wide, with Ethereum liquidations exceeding Bitcoin's. Altcoins performed even weaker than Bitcoin, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA and LIT among those falling more than 10%. By contrast, ZEC was one of the few large-cap assets to rise against the trend, showing that the privacy sector still has some market demand.

Looking ahead, the market still needs to remain cautious before Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average. If Bitcoin's daily close falls below 73000 USD and the 200-day moving average, the next level to watch is 68000 USD, and altcoins that rebounded strongly earlier may face greater selling pressure. Only if Bitcoin's daily price reclaims and holds above 80000 USD while spot Bitcoin ETFs resume weekly net inflows could the outlook turn positive. In the short term, watch the U.S. October CPI data due Tuesday, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month; in addition, Cisco and Applied Materials will report earnings on Thursday, U.S. PPI data will be released on Friday, and Nvidia is scheduled to report earnings on November 17. The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on December 8 to 9, and the market currently expects a rate hike probability of about 77%.

Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/376583

Key points

According to BlockBeats citing Wintermute, Bitcoin rebounded to 81000 USD at one point last Wednesday and fell to a low of 73500 USD on Sunday.
The report said Bitcoin's weekly close fell below the 50-week moving average of about 75500 USD, ending a streak of 7 consecutive weeks above that average.
The report said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of 1280000000 USD last week, the largest weekly outflow since June, wiping out cumulative net inflows for the year.
The report said more than 1000000000 USD in positions were liquidated market-wide, with Ethereum liquidations exceeding Bitcoin's; NEAR, HYPE, ENA and LIT among others fell more than 10%.
Wintermute believes that if the daily close falls below 73000 USD and the 200-day moving average, the next level to watch is 68000 USD; only if the daily price reclaims and holds above 80000 USD and spot Bitcoin ETFs resume weekly net inflows could the outlook turn positive.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

This is a market review and conditional judgment. Wintermute is watching both whether prices can reclaim the moving averages and whether ETF inflows can resume; the 68000 USD it mentions is a level to watch in a downside scenario, not a price it is certain to reach.

Why it matters to readers

According to Wintermute's analysis, weakening prices and ETF outflows deserve simultaneous attention; if the Federal Reserve raises rates during an AI asset pullback, tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite could together pressure the crypto market. This is a scenario judgment, not a causal conclusion about something that has already happened.

It is important to distinguish historical data in the report from assumptions about the future. 73000 USD, 80000 USD and weekly ETF flows are observation conditions in the text, and none of these price levels should be understood as a definite promise of gains or losses.

Risks and unknowns

ETF flows, prices, liquidation scale and rate hike probability are not accompanied by raw data in the provided evidence and cannot be independently verified.
The U.S. midterm election results, changes in regulatory risk and their market impact are only relayed in the report, with no independent corroboration provided.
The 0.2% month-on-month rise in core CPI and the roughly 77% rate hike probability mentioned in the text are expectations, not final published results.
The economic data and corporate earnings schedule in the text are not accompanied by original announcements, and the specific arrangements remain to be verified.

Wintermute: Caution still needed before Bitcoin returns to the 75500 USD moving average

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