58bro.eth continues to hold BTC and ETH short positions and bets that BTC will hold above 70000 USD by year-end.

AT A GLANCE

According to TradingBeats monitoring, 58bro.eth slightly reduced its BTC short position and took profits, while betting that BTC will not fall to 70000 USD before the end of the year.

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🔍 On-chain Detective | A well-known short whale expects BTC to hold 70,000 USD before year-end and has begun partially taking profits

BlockBeats reports that on November 9, according to TradingBeats monitoring, a cross-market trader bought approximately 20,000 "BTC will fall to 70,000 USD before year-end" No contracts over the weekend while slightly covering BTC shorts and cashing out some gains. Currently, their Hyperliquid account still holds about 19,220,000 USD worth of BTC and ETH shorts, with total unrealized profits of approximately 1,955,300 USD.

With the U.S. October CPI set to be released tomorrow evening Beijing time, this trader is reinforcing their view of a downside boundary for BTC while maintaining short exposure.

This trader is the major short 58bro.eth (X: 0x58bro) previously tracked by BlockBeats. Since the weekend, they have deployed approximately 10,100 USD via the LucasMeow account on Polymarket to purchase around 20,000 "BTC will fall to 70,000 USD before year-end" No contracts, corresponding to an average implied probability of about 49%. Currently, the implied probability of "not falling to 70,000 USD" has dropped to 39.5%, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately 2,164 USD on this position.

At the same time, they also invested about 20,400 USD to buy roughly 25,000 "BTC will fall to 60,000 USD before year-end" No contracts, currently priced at a probability of 80.5%. Their new BTC and ETH price prediction purchases made over the weekend total approximately 60,100 USD, mainly concentrated on betting against deep declines.

On the contract side, they have partially realized short-term profits. Since the weekend, BTC shorts have decreased from a net 88 contracts to 85, generating approximately 79,600 USD in liquidation profits during this period. Their current main positions are:

- 85 BTC shorts: valued at approximately 6,368,600 USD, with an average price of 77,582.6 USD and unrealized profits of about 225,900 USD.

- 6,000 ETH shorts: valued at approximately 12,847,200 USD, with an average price of 2,429.43 USD and unrealized profits of about 1,729,400 USD.

These two BTC predictions can provide limited cushion against a rebound: if neither threshold is breached within their respective observation periods and both year-end No contracts settle in favor, after deducting approximately 30,500 USD in costs, the maximum net profit would be about 14,500 USD. This could only offset an increase of approximately 171 USD or 0.22% above the average short position price.

Given the relatively small scale covered and combined with their slight reduction in short exposure, this series of operations may suggest an intention to maintain short-term bearishness while actively expecting BTC to hold 70,000 USD before year-end.

Key points

BlockBeats reports that on November 9, according to TradingBeats monitoring, a cross-market trader bought approximately 20000 more contracts of “BTC will fall to 70000 USD before year-end” No. over the weekend.
The trader slightly covered BTC short positions and took some profits; the Hyperliquid side still holds about 19220000 USD in BTC and ETH shorts, with a total unrealized profit of approximately 1955300 USD.
The article refers to the trader as 58bro.eth（X：0x58bro），who used the LucasMeow account on Polymarket to invest approximately 10100 USD in buying related No shares.
The implied probability of “not falling to 70000 USD” has dropped back to 39.5%, and this position is currently down about 2164 USD.
The trader also invested about 20400 USD to buy approximately 25000 "BTC will fall to 60000 USD before year-end" No options, which currently correspond to a probability of 80.5%.
Since the weekend, its BTC short position has decreased from 88 to 85, with liquidation profits of approximately 79600 USD during that period.
The main positions listed in the text are 85 short BTC and 6000 short ETH, worth approximately 6368600 USD and 12847200 USD, respectively.
The article states that the United States will release October CPI tomorrow night Beijing time.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

“No” indicates a bet that the event described in the question will not occur. The trader still holds short positions in BTC and ETH, meaning they are still positioning for a price decline; at the same time, they bought shares of the prediction that BTC will not fall to 70000 USD and 60000 USD before year-end, and slightly reduced their BTC short position. Therefore, the original text interprets this as: while maintaining short-term shorts, they tend to believe BTC can hold above 70000 USD before year-end.

Why it matters to readers

These operations simultaneously include short positions, partial profit-taking, and bets against a deep decline, which can be used to observe changes in this trader’s assessment of BTC’s downside potential. The article also notes that the scale of predictive position coverage is relatively small and can only provide limited cushioning.

Beginners should distinguish between empty positions and prediction market positions: the former typically benefit from falling prices, while the latter involve betting on whether a certain price condition will occur. An individual trader’s position alone cannot independently prove the future direction of the market.

Risks and unknowns

Positions, trade volumes, and P&L are from BlockBeats’ reporting of TradingBeats’ monitoring; the original text does not provide direct confirmation from the trading platform or traders.
“The expectation that BTC will hold above 70000 USD before year-end” is a judgment based on the position portfolio in the original text, not a direct statement by a trader.

58bro.eth continues to hold BTC and ETH short positions and bets that BTC will hold above 70000 USD by year-end.

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