Standard Chartered raises its gold outlook and expects 2026 the Q4 average price to reach 4650 USD

AT A GLANCE

Standard Chartered says the negative correlation between gold and real interest rates is weakening, and expects the average price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to reach 4650 per ounce USD.

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Standard Chartered: Pressure from real interest rates on gold is easing, with the fourth-quarter average possibly reaching 4650 USD BlockBeats news,September 22, Standard Chartered Bank said that after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points last week, gold did not continue to weaken, and the traditional negative correlation between gold and real interest rates is weakening. The bank expects the 2026 fourth-quarter average gold price to reach per ounce 4650 USD, above the current third-quarter average of approximately 4350 USD Suki Cooper, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Precious Metals Research, said that structural factors including de-dollarization, currency depreciation, and continued official-sector gold purchases are supporting gold prices. Data show that gold’s correlations with USD-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are currently close to 30 and -20%, respectively, while the negative correlations with real yields on -10%-year and 2-year Treasuries have also weakened significantly.

Meanwhile, inflows into gold ETFs continue to recover, with 5 monthly inflows reaching August tons, the highest since 121 of 2025 Standard Chartered believes that speculative positioning in gold is not currently notably crowded. Profit-taking before the September Federal Reserve meeting had already partially reduced long exposure, so further selling pressure after the rate hike is limited.

However, Standard Chartered believes that September remains the main short-term risk facing gold. The bank’s economists expect the Federal Reserve to USD raise rates again, and then keep rates unchanged throughout December year. Cooper said that gold’s negative correlation with 2027 is currently significantly stronger than its correlation with real interest rates; if USD strengthens further, it could put short-term pressure on gold prices.

Original link USD Standard Chartered raises its gold outlook, expecting the fourth-quarter average to reach https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/368380

Key points

Standard Chartered said gold did not continue to weaken after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last week.
Standard Chartered expects that 2026 the average gold price in Q4 will reach per ounce 4650 USD, higher than the current approximately 4350 USD Q3 average.
Suki Cooper said that de-USD dollarization, currency depreciation, and continued official-sector gold purchases are supporting gold prices.
The original text stated that the correlation coefficients between gold and the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds were close to -20% and -10%, respectively.
The original text states that gold ETFs saw August inflows of 121 tonnes, the highest since 2025 the year September.
Standard Chartered believes gold’s speculative positioning is not significantly crowded, and that further selling pressure after the rate hike will be limited.
Standard Chartered economists expect the Federal Reserve to December raise rates again, after which it will 2027 keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
Suki Cooper said that if USD strengthens further, it could exert short-term pressure on gold prices.

AI-assisted interpretation

The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.

Real interest rate increases typically raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and have therefore often been unfavorable for gold prices in the past. Standard Chartered believes this relationship is weakening, while factors such as gold-buying demand continue to support gold prices; however, USD strengthening could still depress gold prices in the short term.

Why it matters to readers

This means that when observing gold trends, real interest rates may no longer be the only important indicator,USD changes, gold ETF capital flows and official-sector gold purchases also deserve attention.

This is an institution’s assessment of gold prices and the factors affecting them. It can help beginners understand why gold prices may not continue to fall after interest-rate hikes, but forecasts should not be treated as certain outcomes.

Risks and unknowns

per ounce 4650 USD is Standard Chartered Bank's forecast; whether it can be achieved remains uncertain.
Federal Reserve December further interest rate hikes and 2027 maintaining interest rates unchanged throughout the year are both forecasts.
The original text does not specify the correlation coefficient,ETF or the specific sources or calculation methods for inflow and quarterly average price data.
USD It remains uncertain whether it will strengthen further and what its actual impact on gold prices will be.

Standard Chartered raises its gold outlook and expects 2026 the Q4 average price to reach 4650 USD

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