Analyst: Bitcoin short-term holders' cost basis is approximately 76,000 USD, with conviction in holding under test
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AT A GLANCE
Analyst Darkfost said that the average cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders is close to 76,000 USD, and conviction in holding remains to be seen.
Article
Analyst: Bitcoin short-term holders' cost basis is approximately 76,000 USD, and conviction in holding is being tested
BlockBeats reported that October 31, crypto analyst Darkfost wrote that the average cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) is close to 76,000 USD, and the current price is testing their conviction in holding.STH MVRV(the ratio of market capitalization to realized capitalization) is approaching the neutral level of 1; this indicator rose above September in late 1.18, reaching its highest level since 2025 July, indicating that this group's unrealized gains were at a more than 1-year high at that time.
He noted that the cost basis of short-term holders has continued to rise from approximately August in mid-67,500 USD, indicating that this group participated in Bitcoin's rise during the same period. Against a backdrop of positive medium-term momentum for Bitcoin, the price range corresponding to MVRV returning to neutral may prompt short-term holders to act: continue buying or capitulate and sell, as they did yesterday. He said both behaviors typically coexist, but whether conviction in holding can prevail remains to be seen.
Original link https://m.theblockbeats.info/flash/374808
Key points
01
BlockBeats reported on October 31 that crypto analyst Darkfost published the relevant analysis.
02
Darkfost stated that the average cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) is close to 76,000 USD。
03
Darkfost said that STH MVRV is approaching the neutral level of 1.
04
This indicator rose above September in late 1.18, reaching its highest level since 2025 July.
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Darkfost noted that the cost basis of short-term holders has continued to rise since approximately August in mid-67,500 USD.
06
Darkfost believes short-term holders may continue buying or capitulate and sell, and said both behaviors typically coexist.
AI-assisted interpretation
The following is analysis, separate from reported facts. Verify important claims independently.
STH Refers to people who have held Bitcoin for a relatively short period.MVRV Used to compare market capitalization and realized capitalization; the text states that it is close to 1, meaning that this group's overall profit and loss is close to neutral. According to Darkfost's assessment, the current price range may lead recent buyers to choose between continuing to buy and selling.
Why it matters to readers
If short-term holders act collectively because of profit-and-loss pressure, Bitcoin's short-term buying and selling forces may change; however, the original text only states that their conviction in holding is being tested, and which behavior will ultimately prevail remains to be seen.
Beginners may view approximately 76,000 USD as the average cost-basis reference line for short-term holders mentioned in the text, rather than a definite support level, price forecast, or trading recommendation.
Risks and unknowns
The content is BlockBeats' restatement of a single analyst's view.
The original text does not provide a calculation method, sample scope, or underlying on-chain data, so the relevant figures cannot be independently verified on this basis.
It remains uncertain whether short-term holders will continue buying or capitulate and sell.
Whether conviction in holding can prevail remains to be seen.
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STH
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