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Bitunix analyst: Inflationary pressure may persist into 2027 year, bond bullish trades face a policy test
BlockBeats reports,October 28, the global economy is facing a combination of resilient growth and persistent inflation. A Reuters survey showed that, among the surveyed 50 economies, 31 raised their 2027 inflation forecasts, while 23 raised their growth forecasts; rising energy prices and continued AI investment have kept demand from cooling significantly, while price pressures may continue to spread. Since early October, international oil prices have remained above 100 USD per barrel. If the energy shock is further transmitted to transportation, production, and service prices, major central banks will find it more difficult to strike a balance between controlling inflation and sustaining growth.
Changes in energy supply are also rewriting trade costs. Indian refineries have begun increasing purchases of Middle Eastern crude because the discount on Russian crude is gradually being offset by high freight costs;BPCL expects to November reduce imports of Russian oil and shift to Middle Eastern supplies with more competitive delivered costs. This reflects that the market is no longer considering only oil prices or nominal discounts, but also shipping risks, capacity, and delivery costs. Even though the United States and Russia are discussing the restoration of some energy cooperation after the war, the relevant proposals remain conditional on the conflict ending and are unlikely to translate into additional supply in the short term.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but disagreement over subsequent policy is deepening. Energy-driven inflation could support tighter policy for longer; on the other hand, the recent rebound in U.S. Treasury bonds and investors' increased bullish positions indicate that some funds are preparing for an economic slowdown. If Waller sends a more hawkish signal, bond bulls may face position unwinding; if policy remains on hold, the market will need to reassess whether inflation has truly peaked.
Going forward, the key issues are whether energy costs can fall back, whether price pressures will spread to core inflation, and how the Federal Reserve will respond to the tug-of-war between growth and prices. When supply risks persist while economic demand remains resilient, the market faces not merely short-term oil-price volatility, but a linked reassessment of inflation expectations, financing costs, and asset valuations.
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